Scott Goetz
Dados Biográficos
| ID | 6313853 |
|---|---|
| NOME | Scott Goetz |
| PRENOMES | Scott |
| SOBRENOME | Goetz |
| ASSINATURA | GOETZ S |
| AFILIAÇÕES | Northern Arizona University |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-6326-4308 |
| VERIFICADO | Sim |
| TOTAL DE OBRAS | 48 |
| TOTAL DE CITAÇÕES | 13 |
| TOTAL COMO AUTOR | 48 |
| TOTAL COMO EDITOR | 0 |
| PRIMEIRO ANO DE PUBLICAÇÃO | 2005 |
| ANO MAIS RECENTE DE PUBLICAÇÃO | 2025 |
| ÍNDICE H | 1 |
Permafrost vulnerability to climate change
Permafrost regions are undergoing profound changes under a warming climate, with significant implications for Earth system feedback, ecosystems, and infrastructure. This editorial synthesizes findings from 35 interdisciplinary studies featured in this focus issue, which collectively advance our understanding of permafrost degradation dynamics and their cascading impacts. The contributions span a wide range of spatial scales from site-level proces…
Time-series maps reveal widespread change in plant functional type cover across Arctic and boreal Alaska and Yukon
Widespread changes in the distribution and abundance of plant functional types (PFTs) are occurring in Arctic and boreal ecosystems due to the intensification of disturbances, such as fire, and climate-driven vegetation dynamics, such as tundra shrub expansion. To understand how these changes affect boreal and tundra ecosystems, we need to first quantify change for multiple PFTs across recent years. While landscape patches are generally composed …
Disturbances in North American boreal forest and Arctic tundra
Ecosystems in the North American Arctic-Boreal Zone (ABZ) experience a diverse set of disturbances associated with wildfire, permafrost dynamics, geomorphic processes, insect outbreaks and pathogens, extreme weather events, and human activity. Climate warming in the ABZ is occurring at over twice the rate of the global average, and as a result the extent, frequency, and severity of these disturbances are increasing rapidly. Disturbances in the AB…
Gedi launches a new era of biomass inference from space
Accurate estimation of aboveground forest biomass stocks is required to assess the impacts of land use changes such as deforestation and subsequent regrowth on concentrations of atmospheric CO 2 . The Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) is a lidar mission launched by NASA to the International Space Station in 2018. GEDI was specifically designed to retrieve vegetation structure within a novel, theoretical sampling design that explicitl…
Plant functional type aboveground biomass change within Alaska and northwest Canada mapped using a 35-year satellite time series from 1985 to 2020
Changes in vegetation distribution are underway in Arctic and boreal regions due to climate warming and associated fire disturbance. These changes have wide ranging downstream impacts—affecting wildlife habitat, nutrient cycling, climate feedbacks and fire regimes. It is thus critical to understand where these changes are occurring and what types of vegetation are affected, and to quantify the magnitude of the changes. In this study, we mapped li…
Revisiting the status of forest carbon stock changes in the context of the measurement and monitoring needs, capabilities and potential for addressing reduced emissions from deforestation and forest d…
No abstract
Bottom-up drivers of future fire regimes in western boreal North America
Forest characteristics, structure, and dynamics within the North American boreal region are heavily influenced by wildfire intensity, severity, and frequency. Increasing temperatures are likely to result in drier conditions and longer fire seasons, potentially leading to more intense and frequent fires. However, an increase in deciduous forest cover is also predicted across the region, potentially decreasing flammability. In this study, we use an…
Mapping tree diversity in the tropical forest region of Chocó-Colombia
Understanding spatial patterns of diversity in tropical forests is indispensable for their sustainable use and conservation. Recent studies have reported relationships between forest structure and α -diversity. While tree α -diversity is difficult to map via remote sensing, large-scale forest structure models are becoming more common, which would facilitate mapping the relationship between tree α -diversity and forest structure, contributing to o…
Soil respiration strongly offsets carbon uptake in Alaska and Northwest Canada
Soil respiration (i.e. from soils and roots) provides one of the largest global fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) to the atmosphere and is likely to increase with warming, yet the magnitude of soil respiration from rapidly thawing Arctic-boreal regions is not well understood. To address this knowledge gap, we first compiled a new CO 2 flux database for permafrost-affected tundra and boreal ecosystems in Alaska and Northwest Canada. We then used th…
Climate-driven risks to the climate mitigation potential of forests
Risks to mitigation potential of forests Much recent attention has focused on the potential of trees and forests to mitigate ongoing climate change by acting as sinks for carbon. Anderegg et al. review the growing evidence that forests' climate mitigation potential is increasingly at risk from a range of adversities that limit forest growth and health. These include physical factors such as drought and fire and biotic factors, including the depre…
Change in Terrestrial Human Footprint Drives Continued Loss of Intact Ecosystems
Human pressure mapping is important for understanding humanity's role in shaping Earth's patterns and processes. Our ability to map this influence has evolved, thanks to powerful computing, Earth-observing satellites, and new bottom-up census and crowd-sourced data. Here, we provide the latest temporally inter-comparable maps of the terrestrial human footprint and assessment of change in human pressure at global, biome, and ecoregional scales. In…
Incorporating canopy structure from simulated Gedi lidar into bird species distribution models
The Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) lidar began data acquisition from the International Space Station in March 2019 and is expected to make over 10 billion measurements of canopy structure and topography over two years. Previously, airborne lidar data with limited spatial coverage have been used to examine relationships between forest canopy structure and faunal diversity, most commonly bird species. GEDI’s latitudinal coverage wil…
Lichen cover mapping for caribou ranges in interior Alaska and Yukon
Previous research indicates that the effects of climate warming, including shrub expansion and increased fire frequency may lead to declining lichen abundance in arctic tundra and northern alpine areas. Lichens are important forage for caribou ( Rangifer tarandus ), whose populations are declining throughout most of North America. To clarify how lichen cover might affect caribou resource selection, ecologists require better data on the spatial di…
A narrow window of summer temperatures associated with shrub growth in Arctic Alaska
Warming in recent decades has triggered shrub expansion in Arctic and alpine tundra, which is transforming these temperature-limited ecosystems and altering carbon and nutrient cycles, fire regimes, permafrost stability, land-surface climate-feedbacks, and wildlife habitat. Where and when Arctic shrub expansion happens in the future will depend in part on how different shrub communities respond to warming air temperatures. Here, we analyze a shru…
Focus on changing fire regimes
Fire is a complex Earth system phenomenon that fundamentally affects vegetation distributions, biogeochemical cycling, climate, and human society across most of Earth’s land surface. Fire regimes are currently changing due to multiple interacting global change drivers, most notably climate change, land use, and direct human influences via ignition and suppression. It is therefore critical to better understand the drivers, patterns, and impacts of…
Focus on the role of forests and soils in meeting climate change mitigation goals
It is clear that reducing greenhouse gas emissions alone is insufficient to avoid large global temperature increases. To avoid atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases that result in dangerous alterations of the climate, large reductions in carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion and land use changes must be accompanied by an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide sequestration. Natural Climate Solutions have become a major foc…
Global restoration opportunities in tropical rainforest landscapes
Assessment of socioenvironmental benefits and feasibility identifies priority areas for restoring global tropical rainforests.
Impacts of climate and insect herbivory on productivity and physiology of trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides) in Alaskan boreal forests
Climate change is impacting forested ecosystems worldwide, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere where warming has increased at a faster rate than the rest of the globe. As climate warms, trembling aspen ( Populus tremuloides ) is expected to become more successful in northern boreal forests because of its current presence in drier areas of North America. However, large-scale productivity decline of aspen has recently been documented throughout…
An overview of ABoVE airborne campaign data acquisitions and science opportunities
The 2017 Arctic Boreal Vulnerability Experiment Airborne Campaign (AAC) was one of the largest, most complex airborne science experiments conducted by NASA’s Earth Science Division. Between April and November, the AAC involved ten aircraft in more than 200 science flights that surveyed over 4 million km 2 in Alaska and northwestern Canada. Many flights were coordinated with same-day ground-based measurements to link process-level studies with geo…
Road expansion and persistence in forests of the Congo Basin
Tundra plant above-ground biomass and shrub dominance mapped across the North Slope of Alaska
Arctic tundra is becoming greener and shrubbier due to recent warming. This is impacting climate feedbacks and wildlife, yet the spatial distribution of plant biomass in tundra ecosystems is uncertain. In this study, we mapped plant and shrub above-ground biomass (AGB; kg m ^−2 ) and shrub dominance (%; shrub AGB/plant AGB) across the North Slope of Alaska by linking biomass harvests at 28 field sites with 30 m resolution Landsat satellite imager…
Anticipating social equity impacts in Redd+ policy design
Missing pieces to modeling the Arctic-Boreal puzzle
NASA has launched the decade-long Arctic-Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE). While the initial phases focus on field and airborne data collection, early integration with modeling activities is important to benefit future modeling syntheses. We compiled feedback from ecosystem modeling teams on key data needs, which encompass carbon biogeochemistry, vegetation, permafrost, hydrology, and disturbance dynamics. A suite of variables was identifi…
Ecosystem responses to climate change at a Low Arctic and a High Arctic long-term research site
Long-term measurements of ecological effects of warming are often not statistically significant because of annual variability or signal noise. These are reduced in indicators that filter or reduce the noise around the signal and allow effects of climate warming to emerge. In this way, certain indicators act as medium pass filters integrating the signal over years-to-decades. In the Alaskan Arctic, the 25-year record of warming of air temperature …
Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire
As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of t…
Satellite-observed photosynthetic trends across boreal North America associated with climate and fire disturbance
We analyzed trends in a time series of photosynthetic activity across boreal North America over 22 years (1981 through 2003). Nearly 15% of the region displayed significant trends, of which just over half involved temperature-related increases in growing season length and photosynthetic intensity, mostly in tundra. In contrast, forest areas unaffected by fire during the study period declined in photosynthetic activity and showed no systematic cha…
Ecosystem responses to recent climate change and fire disturbance at northern high latitudes
Vegetation composition at high latitudes plays a critical role in the climate and, in turn, is strongly affected by the climate. The increased frequency of fires expected as a result of climate warming at high latitudes will feedback positively to further warming by releasing carbon to the atmosphere, but will also feedback negatively by increasing the surface albedo. The net effect is complex because the severity of fire affects the trajectory o…
A first map of tropical Africa’s above-ground biomass derived from satellite imagery
Observations from the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) were used in combination with a large data set of field measurements to map woody above-ground biomass (AGB) across tropical Africa. We generated a best-quality cloud-free mosaic of MODIS satellite reflectance observations for the period 2000–2003 and used a regression tree model to predict AGB at 1 km resolution. Results based on a cross-validation approach show that the…
Satellite observations of high northern latitude vegetation productivity changes between 1982 and 2008
In the first paragraph of the section '2. Data sets and methods', the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data set used was incorrectly referred to as GIMMS-NDVI version 3G with a 0.084° spatial resolution. This should be corrected to GIMMS-NDVI version G with a 0.07° spatial resolution
Satellite observations of high northern latitude vegetation productivity changes between 1982 and 2008
To assess ongoing changes in high latitude vegetation productivity we compared spatiotemporal patterns in remotely sensed vegetation productivity in the tundra and boreal zones of North America and Eurasia. We compared the long-term GIMMS (Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies) NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) to the more recent and advanced MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) NDVI data set, and mapped circu…
Tundra vegetation effects on pan-Arctic albedo
Recent field experiments in tundra ecosystems describe how increased shrub cover reduces winter albedo, and how subsequent changes in surface net radiation lead to altered rates of snowmelt. These findings imply that tundra vegetation change will alter regional energy budgets, but to date the effects have not been documented at regional or greater scales. Using satellite observations and a pan-Arctic vegetation map, we examined the effects of shr…
Varying boreal forest response to Arctic environmental change at the Firth River, Alaska
In the second paragraph of the section '2.3 Meteorological and remote sensing data', the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data set used was incorrectly referred to as GIMMS-NDVI version 3G with a 0.084 spatial resolution. This should be corrected to GIMMS-NDVI version G with a 0.07 spatial resolution
Reply to Comment on ‘A first map of tropical Africa’s above-ground biomass derived from satellite imagery’
Biomass mapping using satellite imagery is a rapidly evolving field that has been greatly facilitated in recent years by the advent of LiDAR remote sensing coupled with co-located field measurements. The biomass map of Africa that we published in 2008 did not take direct advantage of coincident field and LiDAR measurements, as our more recent efforts have. The criticisms of our earlier map by Mitchard et al (2011 Environ. Res. Lett. 6 049001) are…
Shrub expansion in tundra ecosystems
Recent research using repeat photography, long-term ecological monitoring and dendrochronology has documented shrub expansion in arctic, high-latitude and alpine tundra ecosystems. Here, we (1) synthesize these findings, (2) present a conceptual framework that identifies mechanisms and constraints on shrub increase, (3) explore causes, feedbacks and implications of the increased shrub cover in tundra ecosystems, and (4) address potential lines of…
Varying boreal forest response to Arctic environmental change at the Firth River, Alaska
In the second paragraph of the section '2.3 Meteorological and remote sensing data', the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data set used was incorrectly referred to as GIMMS-NDVI version 3G with a 0.084° spatial resolution. This should be corrected to GIMMS-NDVI version G with a 0.07° spatial resolution
Tundra vegetation effects on pan-Arctic albedo
The Environmental Research Letters publishing team would like to apologise to the authors of the above paper. This section should read: 'Funding for this research was provided by the National Science Foundation Office of Polar Programs-IPY (Grant 0732954), the NASA Carbon Cycle & Ecosystems Program (Grant NNX08AG13G), and the NOAA Global Carbon Cycle Program (Grant NA08OAR4310526). We wish to thank Yufang Jin, Jim Randerson, and two anonymous rev…
The footprint of Alaskan tundra fires during the past half-century
© IOP Publishing, 2012. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Environmental Research Letters 7 (2012): 044039, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044039
Shrub expansion and climate feedbacks in Arctic tundra
Arctic tundra ecosystems stand to play a substantial role in both the magnitude and rate of global climate warming over the coming decades and centuries. The exact nature of this role will be determined by the combined effects of currently amplified rates of climate warming in the Arctic (Serreze et al 2000) and a series of related positive climate feedbacks that include mobilization of permafrost carbon (Schuur et al 2008), decreases in surface …
Mapping and monitoring deforestation and forest degradation in Sumatra (Indonesia) using Landsat time series data sets from 1990 to 2010
As reported by FAO (2005 State of the World’s Forests (Rome: UNFAO), 2010 Forest Resource Assessment (FRA) 2010/095 (Rome: UNFAO)), Indonesia experiences the second highest rate of deforestation among tropical countries. Hence, timely and accurate forest data are required to combat deforestation and forest degradation in support of climate change mitigation and biodiversity conservation policy initiatives. Within Indonesia, Sumatra Island stands …
High-Resolution Global Maps of 21st-Century Forest Cover Change
Forests in Flux Forests worldwide are in a state of flux, with accelerating losses in some regions and gains in others. Hansen et al. (p. 850 ) examined global Landsat data at a 30-meter spatial resolution to characterize forest extent, loss, and gain from 2000 to 2012. Globally, 2.3 million square kilometers of forest were lost during the 12-year study period and 0.8 million square kilometers of new forest were gained. The tropics exhibited both…
Satellite-based primary forest degradation assessment in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, 2000–2010
Primary forest extent, loss and degradation within the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) were quantified from 2000 to 2010 by combining directly mapped forest cover extent and loss data (CARPE) with indirectly mapped forest degradation data (intact forest landscapes, IFL). Landsat data were used to derive both map inputs, and data from the GLAS (Geoscience Laser Altimetry System) sensor were employed to validate the discrimination of primary…
National-scale estimation of gross forest aboveground carbon loss
Recent advances in remote sensing enable the mapping and monitoring of carbon stocks without relying on extensive in situ measurements. The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is among the countries where national forest inventories (NFI) are either non-existent or out of date. Here we demonstrate a method for estimating national-scale gross forest aboveground carbon (AGC) loss and associated uncertainties using remotely sensed-derived forest …
The relative importance of climate and vegetation properties on patterns of North American breeding bird species richness
Recent advances in remote sensing and ecological modeling warrant a timely and robust investigation of the ecological variables that underlie large-scale patterns of breeding bird species richness, particularly in the context of intensifying land use and climate change. Our objective was to address this need using an array of bioclimatic and remotely sensed data sets representing vegetation properties and structure, and other aspects of the physi…
Measurement and monitoring needs, capabilities and potential for addressing reduced emissions from deforestation and forest degradation under Redd
This paper presents an overview of the state of measurement and monitoring capabilities for forests in the context of REDD+ needs, with a focus on what is currently possible, where improvements are needed, and what capabilities will be advanced in the near-term with new technologies already under development. We summarize the role of remote sensing (both satellite and aircraft) for observational monitoring of forests, including measuring changes …
Aboveground carbon loss in natural and managed tropical forests from 2000 to 2012
Tropical forests provide global climate regulation ecosystem services and their clearing is a significant source of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and resultant radiative forcing of climate change. However, consensus on pan-tropical forest carbon dynamics is lacking. We present a new estimate that employs recommended good practices to quantify gross tropical forest aboveground carbon (AGC) loss from 2000 to 2012 through the integrat…
Baseline data on forest loss and associated uncertainty
Countries participating in climate change mitigation via the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation mechanism are required to establish national forest monitoring systems. The design of national forest monitoring system includes provision of transparent, consistent and accurate estimates of emissions and removals from forests, while also taking into account national circu…
Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire
As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of t…
Changing permafrost in a warming world and feedbacks to the Earth system
The permafrost component of the cryosphere is changing dramatically, but the permafrost region is not well monitored and the consequences of change are not well understood. Changing permafrost interacts with ecosystems and climate on various spatial and temporal scales. The feedbacks resulting from these interactions range from local impacts on topography, hydrology, and biology to complex influences on global scale biogeochemical cycling. This r…
Spatial variation in vegetation productivity trends, fire disturbance, and soil carbon across arctic-boreal permafrost ecosystems
In arctic tundra and boreal forest ecosystems vegetation structural and functional influences on the surface energy balance can strongly influence permafrost soil temperatures. As such, vegetation changes will likely play an important role in permafrost soil carbon dynamics and associated climate feedbacks. Processes that lead to changes in vegetation, such as wildfire or ecosystem responses to rising temperatures, are of critical importance to u…
Missing pieces to modeling the Arctic-Boreal puzzle
NASA has launched the decade-long Arctic-Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE). While the initial phases focus on field and airborne data collection, early integration with modeling activities is important to benefit future modeling syntheses. We compiled feedback from ecosystem modeling teams on key data needs, which encompass carbon biogeochemistry, vegetation, permafrost, hydrology, and disturbance dynamics. A suite of variables was identifi…
Environmental Science (46 obras) · Geography (42 obras) · Ecology (38 obras) · Climate change (29 obras) · Ecosystem (24 obras) · Physical geography (24 obras) · Climate change and permafrost (23 obras) · Vegetation (pathology (22 obras) · Geology (20 obras) · Biology (18 obras)