Zoltan Barany
Dados Biográficos
| ID | 81629 |
|---|---|
| NOME | Zoltan Barany |
| PRENOMES | Zoltan |
| SOBRENOME | Barany |
| ASSINATURA | BARANY Z |
| AFILIAÇÕES | The University of Texas at Austin |
| ORCID | 0000-0001-9485-1436 |
| VERIFICADO | Sim |
| TOTAL DE OBRAS | 62 |
| TOTAL DE CITAÇÕES | 274 |
| TOTAL COMO AUTOR | 62 |
| TOTAL COMO EDITOR | 0 |
| PRIMEIRO ANO DE PUBLICAÇÃO | 1989 |
| ANO MAIS RECENTE DE PUBLICAÇÃO | 2025 |
| ÍNDICE H | 8 |
New Military Strategies in the Gulf
Demilitarization, security, and democracy in Panama
China and the Battle for the Global South
Notwithstanding the dominant narrative of Beijing's takeover of fragile democracies, it is possible to resist Chinese autocratization while also reaping benefits from its development aid. Three variables predict a state's capacity to spoil the democracy-subversion campaign of the People's Republic of China (PRC): the strength of political institutions, the level of socioeconomic development, and the will of its traditional partners to help defy B…
Armies and Autocrats
This essay analyzes the failure of Vladimir Putin's military in Ukraine in terms of five key factors. The first of these is Putin's monopolization of control over the armed forces, which has driven critical voices and honest debates out of military and defense matters. Second is the failure of reform: Efforts to overhaul the bloated, ill-equipped post-Soviet military have not produced a twenty-first–century fighting force that can match the world…
The Political Economy of Gulf Defense Establishments
The six monarchies on the Arabian Peninsula have devoted enormous sums to defense in past decades. Nevertheless, the gap between their expensive armaments and their capacity to deter aggression and/or project military strength has narrowed but little in that time. This Element takes a political economy approach and argues that structural factors inherent in the Gulf states' political systems prohibit civilian oversight of the defense sector and a…
The Evolution of the Armed Forces of the United Arab Emirates , by Athol Yates. Warwick, UK
Armies of Arabia
In Armies of Arabia—the first book to comprehensively analyze the Gulf monarchies’ militaries—Zoltan Barany explains the conspicuous ineffectiveness of these forces with a combination of political-structural and sociocultural factors. Based on over 150 personal interviews and meticulous multidisciplinary research, he offers a fascinating account of Arabia’s armies starting with Ibn Saud’s conquest of much of the peninsula and ending with the ongo…
Burma
In November 2020, the National League for Democracy (NLD) won the Burmese general elections by a landslide that even improved on its impressive triumph five years earlier. The NLD's victory signaled to the Burmese generals—who had ruled the country for half a century and then reluctantly shared power with civilians since 2016—that their ambition to form a government legally was unrealistic, and they responded by staging a coup. This essay explain…
The Gulf Monarchies and Israel
The relationship between most of the Gulf monarchies and Israel has improved in recent years. This article argues that four fundamental reasons account for the shift in Gulf leaders' attitudes: growing alignment of geopolitical interests against Iran, failings of American Middle East policy, recognition of the potential economic benefits of détente, and attitudinal shifts about the Palestinian cause. While this trend is present nearly throughout …
Who Will Shield the Imams? Regime Protection in Iran and the Middle East
Military influence in foreign policy-making
The strong political position armed forces enjoy in authoritarian states and the high priority military elites assign to foreign affairs would lead one to believe that in North Africa – a region made up of authoritarian states with the sole, recent, and partial exception of Tunisia – generals had the political standing to exert a major influence on foreign policy decisions. This would not be a correct assumption because in this region the armed f…
Soldiers of Arabia
Since the 1960s many democracies and prosperous authoritarian states have abolished national military service but in recent years that trend has been reversed in several European states — owing primarily to the changing security environment — and, more surprisingly, in Arabia. Three Gulf Cooperation Council states, Kuwait, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates recently introduced conscription for their armed forces. Although this development may be…
Burma
Following the victory of the National League for Democracy (NLD) in November 2015 elections, many vested their hopes in the NLD's leader, Nobel Peace Prize–laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, whom they saw as a force that would propel Burma toward democratic transition. Constitutional constraints have severely limited Suu Kyi's power to transform Burma's political life, with the military continuing to be the most politically influential institution. Even …
Dictators and Their Secret Police
The literature on the resurgence of authoritarianism that has followed the third wave of democratization has grown by leaps and bounds, but its coverage is quite uneven. One of the key areas that has not received sufficient scholarly attention is the coercive apparatus of the state. Within this category, the regular armed forces have been the focus of most studies, while the secret police—arguably an even more important agent of domestic repressi…
Moving toward democracy
Exits from Military Rule
How to turn an army that ruled over the state into a loyal servant of a democratic state? This essay answers this question by examining three different experiences—South Korea’s unqualified success, Thailand’s failure, and Indonesia’s partial success—in order to ascertain their usefulness for Burmese democracy activists. Although Indonesia’s path seems the most reasonable and promising, all three of these countries were in many respects—e.g., vul…
Building National Armies After Civil War
Journal Article Building National Armies After Civil War: Lessons from Bosnia, El Salvador, and Lebanon Get access Zoltan Barany Zoltan Barany University of Texas ZOLTAN BARANY is Frank C. Erwin, Jr. Centennial Professor of Government at the University of Texas and the author, most recently, of The Soldier and the Changing State. His new book, How Armies Respond to Revolutions and Why, will be published by Princeton University Press in 2015. Sear…
How Post-colonial Armies Came About
The creation of an army loyal to the state is one of the most important institutional tasks of post-colonial leaders. But how do novice political leaders develop the capacity to subordinate the armed forces to the authority of state institutions? This essay explains alternative methods of formulating post-colonial civil-military relations and explains why four states - India, Pakistan, Ghana, and Tanzania - took such different routes of instituti…
Revolt and Resilience in the Arab Kingdoms
The eight Arab kingdoms, aside from Bahrain, have weathered the Arab Spring with remarkable ease when compared to presidential republics. What explains the relatively modest upheaval and the ruling elites' success in preserving the status quo? This article suggests that the popular legitimacy of the region's monarchies complemented by fragmented political opposition and deep social cleavages limited the appeal of radical revolt
Armies and Revolutions
We know that a revolution’s success largely depends on the regular army’s response to it. But how will the military react to an uprising? Zoltan Barany argues that it is quite possible to make a highly educated guess, if not an outright prediction, about the generals’ response to a revolution if one knows enough about their army, the state it is supposed to serve, the society in which it exists, and the external environment that affects its actio…
The Soldier and the Changing State
The Soldier and the Changing State
This is the first book to systematically explore, on a global scale, civil–military relations in democratizing and changing states. Looking at how armies supportive of democracy are built, the book argues that the military is the most important institution that states maintain, for without military elites who support democratic governance, democracy cannot be consolidated. The book also demonstrates that building democratic armies is the quintess…
The Soldier and the Changing State
Soldier and the Changing State
The soldier and the changing state
Comparing the Arab Revolts
The support of the armed forces is a necessary condition for a revolution to succeed. The 2011 Arab uprisings support this contention. The military’s role is examined in the six Arab states where significant bloodshed had taken place: Bahrain, Egypt, Libya, Syria, Tunisia, and Yemen. They can be grouped into three categories defined by how the regular military responded to the revolt. In Tunisia and Egypt the soldiers backed the revolution, in Li…
Ethnic mobilization and the state
The political mobilization of marginalized ethnic groups is a process indispensable for the realization of their political objectives. This article identifies the key criteria and conditions that promote and impede successful ethnic mobilization and analyses the determinants of state policy towards newly mobilizing ethnic minorities. The theoretical arguments receive empirical support from the findings of a comparative study of the Romani (Gypsy)…
Living on the Edge
You watch your pocket. Gypsies. They don't work, only steal, and make children so the government will give them money every time Nadine Gordimer "I am no racist," he said. "But some Gypsies you would have to shoot." Jozef Pacai, mayor of the Slovak village of Medzev The east European communist regimes, in contrast to their frequently repeated claims, not only did not weed out nationalism in their domains but in some cases attempted to manipulate …
Democratic Consolidation and the Military
The literature on eastern Europe's postcommunist transition is already voluminous, but the role of the armed forces in democratization processes is one of the few areas that seems to have escaped the attention of political scientists and area specialists.' This omission is striking since the military is potentially one of the most consequential institutional actors in postauthoritarian transitions and the success or failure of these processes to …
Burma
Following the victory of the National League for Democracy (NLD) in November 2015 elections, many vested their hopes in the NLD's leader, Nobel Peace Prize–laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, whom they saw as a force that would propel Burma toward democratic transition. Constitutional constraints have severely limited Suu Kyi's power to transform Burma's political life, with the military continuing to be the most politically influential institution. Even …
Ethnic Mobilization without Prerequisites
This article proposes a model that provides a tool to gauge the preparedness of ethnic and other groups for political mobilization. It argues that successful ethnic mobilization requires a well-specified bundle of “mobilization prerequisites” that can be used to evaluate political and social movements in a variety of contexts. The model is applied to elucidate the East European Gypsy communities' modest success at ethnic political mobilization. T…
Bulgaria's Royal Elections
Last year,Bulgarians elected their newly returned former king as prime minister and then,in a shocking upset,ousted their incumbent president.What do these results portend for the future of Bulgarian democracy
Orphans of Transition
Orphans of Transition: Gypsies in Eastern Europe Zoltan Barany (bio) For the approximately six million Roma (Gypsies) who live in Eastern Europe, the transition from communism has been an altogether deplorable experience. 1 Though entire sections of society (unskilled laborers, pensioners, and so on) have been hurt by the marketization processes that began nearly a decade ago, none has been more adversely affected than the Roma. A wide variety of…
Armies and Autocrats
This essay analyzes the failure of Vladimir Putin's military in Ukraine in terms of five key factors. The first of these is Putin's monopolization of control over the armed forces, which has driven critical voices and honest debates out of military and defense matters. Second is the failure of reform: Efforts to overhaul the bloated, ill-equipped post-Soviet military have not produced a twenty-first–century fighting force that can match the world…
The Roma in Macedonia
Most of Eastern Europe's five-to-seven-million Roma (Gypsies) welcomed the revolutions of 1989 only to realize that the post-communist era brought mixed blessing to them. Although since then their political and cultural marginalization had diminished, their social and economic circumstances had clearly deteriorated in East Central Europe and the Balkans alike. The only exception to this rule appears to be the newly independent Republic of Macedon…
Armies and Revolutions
We know that a revolution’s success largely depends on the regular army’s response to it. But how will the military react to an uprising? Zoltan Barany argues that it is quite possible to make a highly educated guess, if not an outright prediction, about the generals’ response to a revolution if one knows enough about their army, the state it is supposed to serve, the society in which it exists, and the external environment that affects its actio…
Europe Moves Eastward
Europe Moves EastwardNATO’s Peaceful Advance Zoltan Barany (bio) Over the last decade and a half, international organizations have played a vital role in fostering economic and democratic development in Eastern Europe. Notable among these have been the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. By far the most influential, however, have been the European Union (EU) and the North Atlan…
Nato Expansion, Round Two
Politics and the Roma in state-socialist Eastern Europe
This article is a comparative analysis of state-socialist policies towards the East European Gypsies (Roma). I make two related arguments. First, the Gypsy policies of East European states evolved differently and resulted in considerable variation. Second, notwithstanding the state-socialist social control policies, a measure of independent Romani activism did emerge laying the groundwork for post-socialist Gypsy mobilization
What Went Wrong in Russia? Controlling The Military-A Partial Success
What Went Wrong in Russia?Controlling The Military-A Partial Success Zoltan Barany (bio) Since the birth of the new Russia, political elites have not succeeded in bringing the country’s military establishment under their control. The president, the legislature, and political parties and movements of different hues have attempted to coax the military into an active political role. In the meantime, the passive political involvement of the conventio…
The Socio-economic Impact of Regime Change in Eastern Europe
Burma
In November 2020, the National League for Democracy (NLD) won the Burmese general elections by a landslide that even improved on its impressive triumph five years earlier. The NLD's victory signaled to the Burmese generals—who had ruled the country for half a century and then reluctantly shared power with civilians since 2016—that their ambition to form a government legally was unrealistic, and they responded by staging a coup. This essay explain…
The soldier and the changing state
Superpresidentialism and the Military
This article explains the evolution of the presidential‐military nexus in post‐Soviet Russia. Why has the role of presidents become the overriding factor in Russian civil‐military relations? What explains the differences between the relationships Russia's two post‐Soviet presidents, Boris Yeltsin and Vladimir Putin, developed with the armed forces? I argue that following the 1993 crisis between the president and the legislature, and even more so …
The East European Gypsies in the imperial age
It is often assumed that states within the same regime-type pursue similar policies towards minorities. An imperial state, for instance, which has already consolidated its rule over its territory and subject peoples (such as the Hapsburg Empire in the nineteenth century or the Ottoman Empire in the sixteenth century) tends to pursue restrained policies towards marginal groups. Ordinarily, one could expect such states not to enforce cultural or re…
Exits from Military Rule
How to turn an army that ruled over the state into a loyal servant of a democratic state? This essay answers this question by examining three different experiences—South Korea’s unqualified success, Thailand’s failure, and Indonesia’s partial success—in order to ascertain their usefulness for Burmese democracy activists. Although Indonesia’s path seems the most reasonable and promising, all three of these countries were in many respects—e.g., vul…
The Tragedy of the Kursk
The objective of this paper is to reconstruct both the Kursk incident and especially the reaction to it by Russian military and political authorities with the aim of gauging the extent of continuity and change of Soviet-era practices in three key areas of contemporary Russia's public institutional life: (1) the organizational behaviour and institutional culture of the Russian military; (2) the behaviour of Russia's executive political leadership,…
Military influence in foreign policy-making
The strong political position armed forces enjoy in authoritarian states and the high priority military elites assign to foreign affairs would lead one to believe that in North Africa – a region made up of authoritarian states with the sole, recent, and partial exception of Tunisia – generals had the political standing to exert a major influence on foreign policy decisions. This would not be a correct assumption because in this region the armed f…
Dictators and Their Secret Police
The literature on the resurgence of authoritarianism that has followed the third wave of democratization has grown by leaps and bounds, but its coverage is quite uneven. One of the key areas that has not received sufficient scholarly attention is the coercive apparatus of the state. Within this category, the regular armed forces have been the focus of most studies, while the secret police—arguably an even more important agent of domestic repressi…
Moving toward democracy
Military Higher Education In Hungary
Hungarian military education has undergone significant evolution since 1945. In spite of the recent changes implemented in officer training, it is unlikely that the manpower problems facing the Hungarian armed forces will be alleviated. It seems that as long as the Hungarian public continues to view the army negatively-as an economic burden and the ultimate guarantor of the survival of the regime-the best of Hungary's youth will ignore the milita…
Political Participation and the Notion of Reform
The Bankruptcy of Hungarian Socialism
m u n is t s ta te s to th a t o f r u n n in g in a p o ta to s a c k ra c e
On the Road to Democracy
Soviet control of the Hungarian military under Stalin
(1991). Soviet control of the Hungarian military under Stalin. Journal of Strategic Studies: Vol. 14, No. 2, pp. 148-164
Soldiers and Politics in Eastern Europe, 1945–90
Civil-Military Relations in Comparative Perspective
Living on the Edge
You watch your pocket. Gypsies. They don't work, only steal, and make children so the government will give them money every time Nadine Gordimer "I am no racist," he said. "But some Gypsies you would have to shoot." Jozef Pacai, mayor of the Slovak village of Medzev The east European communist regimes, in contrast to their frequently repeated claims, not only did not weed out nationalism in their domains but in some cases attempted to manipulate …
The Return of the Left in East-Central Europe
The remarkable comeback of left-wing parties in the recent Polish and Hungarian elections may be explained by the failures of the post-communist governments and the ability of the former ruling parties to reinvent themselves. It does not signal a return to authoritarianism
The Roma in Macedonia
Most of Eastern Europe's five-to-seven-million Roma (Gypsies) welcomed the revolutions of 1989 only to realize that the post-communist era brought mixed blessing to them. Although since then their political and cultural marginalization had diminished, their social and economic circumstances had clearly deteriorated in East Central Europe and the Balkans alike. The only exception to this rule appears to be the newly independent Republic of Macedon…
The ‘Volatile’ Marxian Concept of the Dictatorship of the Proletariat
Democratic Consolidation and the Military
The literature on eastern Europe's postcommunist transition is already voluminous, but the role of the armed forces in democratization processes is one of the few areas that seems to have escaped the attention of political scientists and area specialists.' This omission is striking since the military is potentially one of the most consequential institutional actors in postauthoritarian transitions and the success or failure of these processes to …
Orphans of Transition
Orphans of Transition: Gypsies in Eastern Europe Zoltan Barany (bio) For the approximately six million Roma (Gypsies) who live in Eastern Europe, the transition from communism has been an altogether deplorable experience. 1 Though entire sections of society (unskilled laborers, pensioners, and so on) have been hurt by the marketization processes that began nearly a decade ago, none has been more adversely affected than the Roma. A wide variety of…
Ethnic mobilization and the state
The political mobilization of marginalized ethnic groups is a process indispensable for the realization of their political objectives. This article identifies the key criteria and conditions that promote and impede successful ethnic mobilization and analyses the determinants of state policy towards newly mobilizing ethnic minorities. The theoretical arguments receive empirical support from the findings of a comparative study of the Romani (Gypsy)…
Out with a whimper
The objective of this article is to provide a snapshot of Hungary's political, social, and to a lesser extent, economic conditions on the eve of the transition. The paper examines the desperate attempts of the socialist political elites to regain their legitimacy through half-hearted political and economic reform proposals, and briefly surveys the country's profound economic difficulties and its pervasive social malaise
What Went Wrong in Russia? Controlling The Military-A Partial Success
What Went Wrong in Russia?Controlling The Military-A Partial Success Zoltan Barany (bio) Since the birth of the new Russia, political elites have not succeeded in bringing the country’s military establishment under their control. The president, the legislature, and political parties and movements of different hues have attempted to coax the military into an active political role. In the meantime, the passive political involvement of the conventio…
The Socio-economic Impact of Regime Change in Eastern Europe
Politics and the Roma in state-socialist Eastern Europe
This article is a comparative analysis of state-socialist policies towards the East European Gypsies (Roma). I make two related arguments. First, the Gypsy policies of East European states evolved differently and resulted in considerable variation. Second, notwithstanding the state-socialist social control policies, a measure of independent Romani activism did emerge laying the groundwork for post-socialist Gypsy mobilization
The Socio-economic Impact of Regime Change in Eastern Europe
The East European Gypsies in the imperial age
It is often assumed that states within the same regime-type pursue similar policies towards minorities. An imperial state, for instance, which has already consolidated its rule over its territory and subject peoples (such as the Hapsburg Empire in the nineteenth century or the Ottoman Empire in the sixteenth century) tends to pursue restrained policies towards marginal groups. Ordinarily, one could expect such states not to enforce cultural or re…
Nato Expansion, Round Two
The East-European Gypsies
Ethnic Mobilization without Prerequisites
This article proposes a model that provides a tool to gauge the preparedness of ethnic and other groups for political mobilization. It argues that successful ethnic mobilization requires a well-specified bundle of “mobilization prerequisites” that can be used to evaluate political and social movements in a variety of contexts. The model is applied to elucidate the East European Gypsy communities' modest success at ethnic political mobilization. T…
Bulgaria's Royal Elections
Last year,Bulgarians elected their newly returned former king as prime minister and then,in a shocking upset,ousted their incumbent president.What do these results portend for the future of Bulgarian democracy
The Future of Nato Expansion
In 1999 three East-Central European states (Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic) gained membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Professor Barany argues that, once it began, the Alliance should continue the enlargement process. Nevertheless he maintains that only states that satisfy NATO's membership criteria should be allowed to join. Through an extensive analysis of four countries, Bulgaria, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia who,…
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