Charles W Ostrom
Dados Biográficos
| ID | 960077 |
|---|---|
| NOME | Charles W Ostrom |
| PRENOMES | Charles W |
| SOBRENOME | Ostrom |
| ASSINATURA | OSTROM C W |
| AFILIAÇÕES | Michigan State University |
| VERIFICADO | Não |
| TOTAL DE OBRAS | 29 |
| TOTAL DE CITAÇÕES | 1288 |
| TOTAL COMO AUTOR | 29 |
| TOTAL COMO EDITOR | 0 |
| PRIMEIRO ANO DE PUBLICAÇÃO | 1977 |
| ANO MAIS RECENTE DE PUBLICAÇÃO | 2023 |
| ÍNDICE H | 16 |
The Impact of Governmental Characteristics on Prime Ministers’ Popularity Ratings
Polls and Elections
George W. Bush's presidency provides a fertile ground to further develop the standard model of presidential approval. In contrast to the vast presidential approval literature, early studies of Bush conclude economic conditions had no effect once the war in Iraq began. Rather than require a fundamental rethinking of presidential approval theories, we argue that approval models must take into account issue salience. When a factor is salient, it has…
Explaining Seat Changes in the U.S. House of Representatives, 1950–98
Explaining Seat Changes in the U.S. House of Representatives, 1950–98
Recent U.S. House elections have challenged existing models of congressional elections, raising the question of whether or not processes thought to govern previous elections are still at work. Taking Marra and Ostrom's (1989) model of congressional elections as representative of extant theoretical perspectives and testing it against recent elections, we find that the model fails. We augment Marra and Ostrom's model with new insights, constructing…
Promoting Positive Youth and Community Development through Outreach Scholarship
The Development-in-Context Evaluation (DICE) model is an instance of outreach scholarship, that is, of the generation, transmission, preservation, and application of knowledge to address community-defined issues or problems. Engaging in outreach scholarship allows universities and communities to contribute effectively to key, contemporary societal concerns and the DICE model, as an instance of such work, provides one means to address issues of so…
Building the Capacity of Youth and Families through University-Community Collaborations
Millions of ournation 's youth are at riskfor involvement in crime and violence, substance use and abuse, unsafe sex, school failure, lack of job preparedness, and the problems associated with living in poverty. To address these issues, scholars and child advocates have called for comprehensive, integrated, and community-based responses that build community capacities for sustaining effective programs. Based on a model for university-community co…
Question Wording and Partisanship
Gallup macropartisanship varies more over time than aggregate measures of partisanship employing the standard Michigan Survey Research Center (SRC) party identification measure, but previous analyses do not provide direct evidence about why Gallup macropartisanship is more variable. Although these differences could result from the short-term focus of the Gallup party affiliation question, aggregate-level analyses cannot test the effects of questi…
Question Form and Context Effects in the Measurement of Partisanship
Previous articles in this Review, including a Controversy in 1992, debated the comparability of alternative forms of the question about partisanship asked in Gallup and Michigan SRC surveys. Bishop, Tuchfarber and Smith contribute to this debate by reporting and analyzing evidence from 15 experimental surveys in Ohio in 1991-1993. They conclude that the distribution of partisan loyalties will generally be the same whether one uses the Gallup or M…
Error Correction, Attitude Persistence, and Executive Rewards and Punishments
Beginning with Mueller's (1970) seminal work, researchers have wrestled with explanations of the movement of presidential approval over time. In his initial argument, Mueller states thatin tandem, the concepts underlying the coalition of minorities and rally round the flag variables predict that the president's popularity will continually decline over time and that international crises and similar events will explain short-term bumps and wiggles …
Question Wording and Macropartisanship
MacKuen, Erikson and Stimson used quarterly Gallup poll data to show in this Review in 1989 that changing levels of macropartisanship, the two-party division of partisans, responded to presidential approval ratings and perceptions of the economy and predicted national election results. In a 1991 Review research note Abramson and Ostrom argued that the NES and GSS questions more commonly used by scholars generated macropartisanship measures less s…
The President, Referendum Voting, and Subnational Elections in the United States
This research is designed to generalize a referendum voting model and investigate its ability to account for the aggregate outcomes of elections for the House, Senate, governorships, and upper and lower chambers of state legislatures. Our analysis shows that these outcomes are influenced by the same systematic short- and long-term forces. In addition to this common referendum structure, the analysis reveals that there is a common response to rand…
Macropartisanship
To evaluate the comparability of the Gallup and Michigan Survey Research Center measures for studying levels of partisanship among the U.S. electorate we compare the overtime distribution of partisanship and the correlates of partisanship using the results of Gallup surveys, the National Election Studies, and the General Social Surveys. Compared with the Gallup results, both the other two surveys reveal less short-term variation and also less tot…
Time Series Analysis
Foreign Policy and Presidential Popularity
Variations in public support for the president have been explained in three different ways. First, approval has been viewed as controlled by the law of inevitable decline. Second, public support has been characterized as a function of an “environmental connection” between chief executives and macrofeatures of the political and economic landscape. Finally, some view “political drama” (e.g., speeches, trips, diplomatic agreements, and so on) as an …
Explaining Seat Change in the U.S. House of Representatives, 1950-86
The Man in the Teflon Suit? The Environmental Connection, Political Drama, and Popular Support in the Reagan Presidency
An examination of public support during the presidency of Ronald Reagan reveals a unique pattern. The major features include two instances of rapidly declining support followed by historically unprecedented and sustained recoveries. The recovery of support is particularly surprising given that the literature of the early 1980s emphasizes the irrecoverable erosion of public support and a resulting “no win” presidency. In this sense, the pattern of…
The Impact of Televised Speeches and Foreign Travel on Presidential Approval
Considerable attention has been devoted in recent years to the use of political drama by the president, with the most discretionary forms of drama-speeches and foreign travel- receiving much scrutiny. In fact, there has arisen a conventional wisdom which asserts that televised speeches and foreign travel by the president (1) have increased over time, (2) exert a uni- formly positive impact on public evaluations of the president's performance, and…
The President's Public
Any analysis of the president's ability to influence citizen opinions is fundamentally tied to question about the attentiveness of the public, the stability of individual opinions, how citizens acquire and process information, and the impact of information on opinion change. Insofar as these questions are concerned, the absence of individual-level analyses creates a gap in the presidential approval literature. The aggregate-level studies, which c…
U.S. Defense Spending and the Soviet Estimate
There is a glaring and potentially important discontinuity surrounding discussions of U.S. defense expenditure policy making. On the one hand, a growing body of empirically-based research questions whether the U.S. reacts in any significant fashion to the military expenditures of the Soviet Union. On the other hand, defense policy makers routinely justify defense increases as a response to similar increases by the Soviet Union. The discontinuity …
The President and the Political Use of Force
Throughout the post-World War II period the president has been called upon to make decisions concerning the use of force as a political instrument. The explanation that is offered is based upon a characterization of the president as a cybernetic human decision maker facing limitations. These limitations, in conjunction with the complexity of the environment, lead presidents to develop and use a relatively simple decision rule. The dependent varia…
Promise and Performance
The growth of public opinion measurement in the last 40 years has added a new dimension to the study of presidential behavior. Not only have public evaluations become more newsworthy, but the importance of public support as a resource and determinant of political survival has been enhanced. Recent scholarship on the presidency has documented the value of public support, attempted to identify its major determinants, and speculated about the manner…
Managing Popular Support
Time-Series Analysis
Introduction Time Series Regression Analysis Nonlagged Case A Ratio Goal Hypothesis The Error Term Time Series Regression Model Nonautoregression Assumption Consequences of Violating the Nonautoregression Assumption Conventional Tests for Autocorrelation An Alternative Method of Estimation EGLS Estimation (First-Order Autocorrelation) Small Sample Properties The Ratio Goal Hypothesis Reconsidered Extension to Multiple Regression Conclusion Altern…
Regularities, Verification, and Systematization
Policy-Making Models, Budgets and International Organizations
The President and the Political Use of Force
Throughout the post-World War II period the president has been called upon to make decisions concerning the use of force as a political instrument. The explanation that is offered is based upon a characterization of the president as a cybernetic human decision maker facing limitations. These limitations, in conjunction with the complexity of the environment, lead presidents to develop and use a relatively simple decision rule. The dependent varia…
Promise and Performance
The growth of public opinion measurement in the last 40 years has added a new dimension to the study of presidential behavior. Not only have public evaluations become more newsworthy, but the importance of public support as a resource and determinant of political survival has been enhanced. Recent scholarship on the presidency has documented the value of public support, attempted to identify its major determinants, and speculated about the manner…
Macropartisanship
To evaluate the comparability of the Gallup and Michigan Survey Research Center measures for studying levels of partisanship among the U.S. electorate we compare the overtime distribution of partisanship and the correlates of partisanship using the results of Gallup surveys, the National Election Studies, and the General Social Surveys. Compared with the Gallup results, both the other two surveys reveal less short-term variation and also less tot…
Foreign Policy and Presidential Popularity
Variations in public support for the president have been explained in three different ways. First, approval has been viewed as controlled by the law of inevitable decline. Second, public support has been characterized as a function of an “environmental connection” between chief executives and macrofeatures of the political and economic landscape. Finally, some view “political drama” (e.g., speeches, trips, diplomatic agreements, and so on) as an …
Error Correction, Attitude Persistence, and Executive Rewards and Punishments
Beginning with Mueller's (1970) seminal work, researchers have wrestled with explanations of the movement of presidential approval over time. In his initial argument, Mueller states thatin tandem, the concepts underlying the coalition of minorities and rally round the flag variables predict that the president's popularity will continually decline over time and that international crises and similar events will explain short-term bumps and wiggles …
U.S. Defense Spending and the Soviet Estimate
There is a glaring and potentially important discontinuity surrounding discussions of U.S. defense expenditure policy making. On the one hand, a growing body of empirically-based research questions whether the U.S. reacts in any significant fashion to the military expenditures of the Soviet Union. On the other hand, defense policy makers routinely justify defense increases as a response to similar increases by the Soviet Union. The discontinuity …
The Impact of Televised Speeches and Foreign Travel on Presidential Approval
Considerable attention has been devoted in recent years to the use of political drama by the president, with the most discretionary forms of drama-speeches and foreign travel- receiving much scrutiny. In fact, there has arisen a conventional wisdom which asserts that televised speeches and foreign travel by the president (1) have increased over time, (2) exert a uni- formly positive impact on public evaluations of the president's performance, and…
The President, Referendum Voting, and Subnational Elections in the United States
This research is designed to generalize a referendum voting model and investigate its ability to account for the aggregate outcomes of elections for the House, Senate, governorships, and upper and lower chambers of state legislatures. Our analysis shows that these outcomes are influenced by the same systematic short- and long-term forces. In addition to this common referendum structure, the analysis reveals that there is a common response to rand…
A Reactive Linkage Model of the U.S. Defense Expenditure Policymaking Process
Several alternative explanations of U.S. defense expenditure policy-making behavior have been heralded as theoretically sound and empirically supported representations of U.S. defense expenditure policy making. This has created an atmosphere in which almost as much effort is directed towards criticizing and/or defending existing explanations as is given to improving them through continued theoretical and empirical investigations. To overcome this…
Evaluating Alternative Foreign Policy Decision-Making Models
The focus of this study is the policy-making process which has as its principal output the annual U.S. defense expenditure total. A Richardson-type arms race model and a Davis, Dempster, and Wildavsky-type organizational politics model have been identified as contending but not mutually exclusive models of this process. Underlying each model is the assertion that a series of inputs is translated in a specified manner into the U.S. defense expendi…
The President's Public
Any analysis of the president's ability to influence citizen opinions is fundamentally tied to question about the attentiveness of the public, the stability of individual opinions, how citizens acquire and process information, and the impact of information on opinion change. Insofar as these questions are concerned, the absence of individual-level analyses creates a gap in the presidential approval literature. The aggregate-level studies, which c…
Question Wording and Macropartisanship
MacKuen, Erikson and Stimson used quarterly Gallup poll data to show in this Review in 1989 that changing levels of macropartisanship, the two-party division of partisans, responded to presidential approval ratings and perceptions of the economy and predicted national election results. In a 1991 Review research note Abramson and Ostrom argued that the NES and GSS questions more commonly used by scholars generated macropartisanship measures less s…
The Man in the Teflon Suit? The Environmental Connection, Political Drama, and Popular Support in the Reagan Presidency
An examination of public support during the presidency of Ronald Reagan reveals a unique pattern. The major features include two instances of rapidly declining support followed by historically unprecedented and sustained recoveries. The recovery of support is particularly surprising given that the literature of the early 1980s emphasizes the irrecoverable erosion of public support and a resulting “no win” presidency. In this sense, the pattern of…
Explaining Seat Change in the U.S. House of Representatives, 1950-86
Alliances and Wars Revisited
The basic hypothesis that is examined posits a relationship between the magnitude of alliance commitment and war in the international system. We begin by establishing a theoretical connection between alliance commitment and war. A discussion follows of methodological considerations relevant to the empirical examination of the basic hypothesis. We specify several alternative forms of the relationship between alliance commitment and war and empiric…
The Relationship Between Size and Stability in the Major Power International System
The balance of power literature is intermingled with hypotheses relating the number of actors to stability in the international system. In addition to the controversy in the theoretical literature, there is an extensive empirical literature in which we find support for a wide range of contradictory hypotheses. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the leading hypotheses based on operationalizations of Lhe key concepts which are consistent with…
Explaining Seat Changes in the U.S. House of Representatives, 1950–98
Recent U.S. House elections have challenged existing models of congressional elections, raising the question of whether or not processes thought to govern previous elections are still at work. Taking Marra and Ostrom's (1989) model of congressional elections as representative of extant theoretical perspectives and testing it against recent elections, we find that the model fails. We augment Marra and Ostrom's model with new insights, constructing…
Question Wording and Partisanship
Gallup macropartisanship varies more over time than aggregate measures of partisanship employing the standard Michigan Survey Research Center (SRC) party identification measure, but previous analyses do not provide direct evidence about why Gallup macropartisanship is more variable. Although these differences could result from the short-term focus of the Gallup party affiliation question, aggregate-level analyses cannot test the effects of questi…
Question Form and Context Effects in the Measurement of Partisanship
Previous articles in this Review, including a Controversy in 1992, debated the comparability of alternative forms of the question about partisanship asked in Gallup and Michigan SRC surveys. Bishop, Tuchfarber and Smith contribute to this debate by reporting and analyzing evidence from 15 experimental surveys in Ohio in 1991-1993. They conclude that the distribution of partisan loyalties will generally be the same whether one uses the Gallup or M…
Building the Capacity of Youth and Families through University-Community Collaborations
Millions of ournation 's youth are at riskfor involvement in crime and violence, substance use and abuse, unsafe sex, school failure, lack of job preparedness, and the problems associated with living in poverty. To address these issues, scholars and child advocates have called for comprehensive, integrated, and community-based responses that build community capacities for sustaining effective programs. Based on a model for university-community co…
Polls and Elections
George W. Bush's presidency provides a fertile ground to further develop the standard model of presidential approval. In contrast to the vast presidential approval literature, early studies of Bush conclude economic conditions had no effect once the war in Iraq began. Rather than require a fundamental rethinking of presidential approval theories, we argue that approval models must take into account issue salience. When a factor is salient, it has…
Managing Popular Support
Policy-Making Models, Budgets and International Organizations
Promoting Positive Youth and Community Development through Outreach Scholarship
The Development-in-Context Evaluation (DICE) model is an instance of outreach scholarship, that is, of the generation, transmission, preservation, and application of knowledge to address community-defined issues or problems. Engaging in outreach scholarship allows universities and communities to contribute effectively to key, contemporary societal concerns and the DICE model, as an instance of such work, provides one means to address issues of so…
Evaluating Alternative Foreign Policy Decision-Making Models
The focus of this study is the policy-making process which has as its principal output the annual U.S. defense expenditure total. A Richardson-type arms race model and a Davis, Dempster, and Wildavsky-type organizational politics model have been identified as contending but not mutually exclusive models of this process. Underlying each model is the assertion that a series of inputs is translated in a specified manner into the U.S. defense expendi…
A Reactive Linkage Model of the U.S. Defense Expenditure Policymaking Process
Several alternative explanations of U.S. defense expenditure policy-making behavior have been heralded as theoretically sound and empirically supported representations of U.S. defense expenditure policy making. This has created an atmosphere in which almost as much effort is directed towards criticizing and/or defending existing explanations as is given to improving them through continued theoretical and empirical investigations. To overcome this…
Alliances and Wars Revisited
The basic hypothesis that is examined posits a relationship between the magnitude of alliance commitment and war in the international system. We begin by establishing a theoretical connection between alliance commitment and war. A discussion follows of methodological considerations relevant to the empirical examination of the basic hypothesis. We specify several alternative forms of the relationship between alliance commitment and war and empiric…
The Relationship Between Size and Stability in the Major Power International System
The balance of power literature is intermingled with hypotheses relating the number of actors to stability in the international system. In addition to the controversy in the theoretical literature, there is an extensive empirical literature in which we find support for a wide range of contradictory hypotheses. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the leading hypotheses based on operationalizations of Lhe key concepts which are consistent with…
Policy-Making Models, Budgets and International Organizations
Time-Series Analysis
Introduction Time Series Regression Analysis Nonlagged Case A Ratio Goal Hypothesis The Error Term Time Series Regression Model Nonautoregression Assumption Consequences of Violating the Nonautoregression Assumption Conventional Tests for Autocorrelation An Alternative Method of Estimation EGLS Estimation (First-Order Autocorrelation) Small Sample Properties The Ratio Goal Hypothesis Reconsidered Extension to Multiple Regression Conclusion Altern…
Regularities, Verification, and Systematization
Managing Popular Support
Promise and Performance
The growth of public opinion measurement in the last 40 years has added a new dimension to the study of presidential behavior. Not only have public evaluations become more newsworthy, but the importance of public support as a resource and determinant of political survival has been enhanced. Recent scholarship on the presidency has documented the value of public support, attempted to identify its major determinants, and speculated about the manner…
U.S. Defense Spending and the Soviet Estimate
There is a glaring and potentially important discontinuity surrounding discussions of U.S. defense expenditure policy making. On the one hand, a growing body of empirically-based research questions whether the U.S. reacts in any significant fashion to the military expenditures of the Soviet Union. On the other hand, defense policy makers routinely justify defense increases as a response to similar increases by the Soviet Union. The discontinuity …
The President and the Political Use of Force
Throughout the post-World War II period the president has been called upon to make decisions concerning the use of force as a political instrument. The explanation that is offered is based upon a characterization of the president as a cybernetic human decision maker facing limitations. These limitations, in conjunction with the complexity of the environment, lead presidents to develop and use a relatively simple decision rule. The dependent varia…
The President's Public
Any analysis of the president's ability to influence citizen opinions is fundamentally tied to question about the attentiveness of the public, the stability of individual opinions, how citizens acquire and process information, and the impact of information on opinion change. Insofar as these questions are concerned, the absence of individual-level analyses creates a gap in the presidential approval literature. The aggregate-level studies, which c…
Explaining Seat Change in the U.S. House of Representatives, 1950-86
The Man in the Teflon Suit? The Environmental Connection, Political Drama, and Popular Support in the Reagan Presidency
An examination of public support during the presidency of Ronald Reagan reveals a unique pattern. The major features include two instances of rapidly declining support followed by historically unprecedented and sustained recoveries. The recovery of support is particularly surprising given that the literature of the early 1980s emphasizes the irrecoverable erosion of public support and a resulting “no win” presidency. In this sense, the pattern of…
The Impact of Televised Speeches and Foreign Travel on Presidential Approval
Considerable attention has been devoted in recent years to the use of political drama by the president, with the most discretionary forms of drama-speeches and foreign travel- receiving much scrutiny. In fact, there has arisen a conventional wisdom which asserts that televised speeches and foreign travel by the president (1) have increased over time, (2) exert a uni- formly positive impact on public evaluations of the president's performance, and…
Time Series Analysis
Foreign Policy and Presidential Popularity
Variations in public support for the president have been explained in three different ways. First, approval has been viewed as controlled by the law of inevitable decline. Second, public support has been characterized as a function of an “environmental connection” between chief executives and macrofeatures of the political and economic landscape. Finally, some view “political drama” (e.g., speeches, trips, diplomatic agreements, and so on) as an …
The President, Referendum Voting, and Subnational Elections in the United States
This research is designed to generalize a referendum voting model and investigate its ability to account for the aggregate outcomes of elections for the House, Senate, governorships, and upper and lower chambers of state legislatures. Our analysis shows that these outcomes are influenced by the same systematic short- and long-term forces. In addition to this common referendum structure, the analysis reveals that there is a common response to rand…
Macropartisanship
To evaluate the comparability of the Gallup and Michigan Survey Research Center measures for studying levels of partisanship among the U.S. electorate we compare the overtime distribution of partisanship and the correlates of partisanship using the results of Gallup surveys, the National Election Studies, and the General Social Surveys. Compared with the Gallup results, both the other two surveys reveal less short-term variation and also less tot…
Error Correction, Attitude Persistence, and Executive Rewards and Punishments
Beginning with Mueller's (1970) seminal work, researchers have wrestled with explanations of the movement of presidential approval over time. In his initial argument, Mueller states thatin tandem, the concepts underlying the coalition of minorities and rally round the flag variables predict that the president's popularity will continually decline over time and that international crises and similar events will explain short-term bumps and wiggles …
Question Wording and Macropartisanship
MacKuen, Erikson and Stimson used quarterly Gallup poll data to show in this Review in 1989 that changing levels of macropartisanship, the two-party division of partisans, responded to presidential approval ratings and perceptions of the economy and predicted national election results. In a 1991 Review research note Abramson and Ostrom argued that the NES and GSS questions more commonly used by scholars generated macropartisanship measures less s…
Question Wording and Partisanship
Gallup macropartisanship varies more over time than aggregate measures of partisanship employing the standard Michigan Survey Research Center (SRC) party identification measure, but previous analyses do not provide direct evidence about why Gallup macropartisanship is more variable. Although these differences could result from the short-term focus of the Gallup party affiliation question, aggregate-level analyses cannot test the effects of questi…
Question Form and Context Effects in the Measurement of Partisanship
Previous articles in this Review, including a Controversy in 1992, debated the comparability of alternative forms of the question about partisanship asked in Gallup and Michigan SRC surveys. Bishop, Tuchfarber and Smith contribute to this debate by reporting and analyzing evidence from 15 experimental surveys in Ohio in 1991-1993. They conclude that the distribution of partisan loyalties will generally be the same whether one uses the Gallup or M…
Promoting Positive Youth and Community Development through Outreach Scholarship
The Development-in-Context Evaluation (DICE) model is an instance of outreach scholarship, that is, of the generation, transmission, preservation, and application of knowledge to address community-defined issues or problems. Engaging in outreach scholarship allows universities and communities to contribute effectively to key, contemporary societal concerns and the DICE model, as an instance of such work, provides one means to address issues of so…
Building the Capacity of Youth and Families through University-Community Collaborations
Millions of ournation 's youth are at riskfor involvement in crime and violence, substance use and abuse, unsafe sex, school failure, lack of job preparedness, and the problems associated with living in poverty. To address these issues, scholars and child advocates have called for comprehensive, integrated, and community-based responses that build community capacities for sustaining effective programs. Based on a model for university-community co…
Political science (24 obras) · Law (22 obras) · Law (21 obras) · Politics (21 obras) · Economics (17 obras) · Electoral Systems and Political Participation (15 obras) · Computer Science (11 obras) · Presidential system (10 obras) · Psychology (10 obras) · Econometrics (8 obras)