Nicholas Crafts
Dados Biográficos
| ID | 976316 |
|---|---|
| NOME | Nicholas Crafts |
| PRENOMES | Nicholas |
| SOBRENOME | Crafts |
| ASSINATURA | CRAFTS N |
| AFILIAÇÕES | University of Warwick |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-1885-6240 |
| VERIFICADO | Sim |
| TOTAL DE OBRAS | 118 |
| TOTAL DE CITAÇÕES | 675 |
| TOTAL COMO AUTOR | 116 |
| TOTAL COMO EDITOR | 2 |
| PRIMEIRO ANO DE PUBLICAÇÃO | 1973 |
| ANO MAIS RECENTE DE PUBLICAÇÃO | 2026 |
| ÍNDICE H | 15 |
A Long‐Run Perspective on Unconditional Convergence in Manufacturing
This paper examines long‐run unconditional convergence of labour productivity in manufacturing across 48 contiguous U.S. states. We construct a detailed panel data set of state‐industry pairs with over 120 industries covering the period 1880–2007. The remarkable finding is a rapid rate of unconditional ‐convergence: 7.6% per year in the period 1880–2007, and about 6.5% in each period 1880–1940 and 1958–2007. We also find a steep rise in unconditi…
The 15‐Hour Week
In 1930, Keynes opined that by 2030, people would work only 15 hours per week. As such, this prediction will not be realized. However, expected lifetime hours of leisure and home production in the UK rose by 58% between 1931 and 2011, rather more than Keynes would have expected. This reflects increases in life expectancy at older ages and much longer expected periods of retirement. Leisure in retirement contributes to high life satisfaction for t…
Considering the Counterfactual
We investigate a structural model of demographic-economic interactions for England during 1570 to 1850. We estimate that the annual rate of population growth consistent with constant real wages was 0.4% before 1760 but 1.5% thereafter. We find that exogenous shocks increased population growth dramatically in the early decades of the Industrial Revolution. Simulations of our model show that if these demographic shocks had occurred before the Indus…
Understanding productivity growth in the industrial revolution
Recent research relating to productivity growth during the British industrial revolution is reviewed. This confirms that there was a gradual acceleration rather than a 'take-off'. The explanation for the speeding-up of technological progress remains controversial but the evidence base has improved considerably. In the face of a surge in population growth, slow growth of real wages during the industrial revolution may be seen as a good outcome whi…
Agglomeration externalities and productivity growth
We investigate the role of industrial structure in labour productivity growth in manufacturing in US cities during the 'second industrial revolution'. We find that initially greater specialization was associated with faster subsequent productivity growth but that only the very high levels of diversity which obtained in some very large cities had a positive correlation. We interpret our results as demonstrating the existence of dynamic Marshallian…
The Sources of Growth in a Technologically Progressive Economy
We develop new aggregate total factor productivity (TFP) growth estimates for the USA between 1899 and 1941, and sectoral estimates at the most disaggregated level so far, 38 industries. We include hard-to-measure services, and a refined measure of sectoral labour quality growth. The resulting data set supersedes Kendrick (1961), showing TFP growth lower than previously thought, broadly based across industries, and strongly variant intertemporall…
Industrial Strategy
The remedies provided in Prosperity and Justice: a Plan for the New Economy are less convincing than its diagnosis. It entails a substantial shift back towards selective industrial policies and resource allocation by the state rather than the market, with the ambition of changing the structure of the economy. Many economists are likely to be sceptical of some of the arguments put forward in the report. An obvious issue is the huge policy discreti…
A New Industrial Strategy
The Impact of EU Membership on UK Economic Performance
The relatively deep level of economic integration achieved by the European Union ( EU ) has been highly successful in increasing trade for its members. Larger trade volumes have had positive effects on productivity levels. In the case of the United Kingdom the gain from joining the EU was probably around 10 per cent of GDP and this far exceeded any costs of membership, possibly by a ratio of seven to one. A major reason for this outcome was a sig…
Geography and intra-national home bias
This article examines home bias in U.S. domestic trade in 1949 and 2007. We use a unique data set of 1949 carload waybill statistics produced by the Interstate Commerce Commission, and 2007 Commodity Flow Survey data. The results show that home bias was considerably smaller in 1949 than in 2007 and that home bias in 1949 was even negative for several commodities. We argue that the difference between the geographical distribution of the manufactur…
What Does the 1930s' Experience Tell Us about the Future of the Eurozone
If the eurozone follows the precedent of the 1930s, it will not survive. The attractions of escaping from the gold standard then were massive and they point to a strategy of devalue and default for today's crisis countries. A fully federal Europe with a banking union and a fiscal union is the best solution, but it may be politically infeasible. However, it may be possible to underpin the euro with a ‘ B retton W oods C ompromise’ that accepts som…
The Location of the UK Cotton Textiles Industry in 1838
We examine the geography of cotton textiles in Britain in 1838 to test claims about why the industry came to be so heavily concentrated in Lancashire. Our analysis considers both first and second nature aspects of geography including the availability of water power, humidity, coal prices, market access, and sunk costs. We show that some of these characteristics have substantial explanatory power. Moreover, we exploit the change from water to stea…
Rearmament to the Rescue? New Estimates of the Impact of "Keynesian" Policies in 1930s' Britain
We report estimates of the fiscal multiplier for interwar Britain based on quarterly data, time-series econometrics, and "defense news." We find that the government expenditure multiplier was in the range 0.3 to 0.8, much lower than previous estimates. The scope for a Keynesian solution to recession was less than is generally supposed. We find that rearmament gave a smaller boost to real GDP than previously claimed. Rearmament may, however, have …
Economic History Matters
This paper considers the future of economic history in the context of its relationship with economics. It is argued that there are strong synergies between the two disciplines and that awareness of the economic past is an important resource for today's economists. Examples are given that illustrate these points. It is clear that the past has useful economics but the potential value of economic history to economics will only be realised if economi…
British relative economic decline revisited
Making sense of the manufacturing belt
This article investigates industrial location in the USA around the turn of the 20th century using a model which subsumes both market-potential and factor-endowment arguments. The results show that market potential was central to the existence of the manufacturing belt, that it mattered more than factor endowments, and that its impact came through interactions both with scale economies and with linkage effects. Market potential was generally much…
Economic Growth in Europe Since 1945
The contribution of new technology to economic growth
This paper reviews the analysis of technological change by cliometricians. It focuses on lessons about total factor productivity (TFP) from growth accounting and on aspects of social capability that are conducive to the effective assimilation of new technology. Key messages are that when TFP growth is very rapid this typically involves reductions in inefficiency not just technological advance and that even really important new technologies have s…
Quantitative economic history
Solow and Growth Accounting
This paper examines the use of growth accounting by economic historians developed following Robert Solow's famous 1957 paper. Several general tendencies are identified, including a desire to account for Solow's residual and a reluctance to adopt the data-demanding methodological refinements of Dale Jorgenson, whose influence on the field was less than that of Edward Denison. Results from historical growth accounting studies are reviewed, and it i…
Profits of Doom
Can the economic history of the past three to four decades be accurately depicted as a long downturn? Contesting Robert Brenner’s account of them in his Economics of Global Turbulence, Nicholas Crafts argues that the ‘Great Moderation’ is a better description of a period in which the United States came to enjoy a strong lead in productivity growth
Were British railway companies well managed in the early twentieth century?1
This paper examines major privately owned British railway companies before the First World War. Quantitative evidence is presented on return on capital employed (ROCE), total factor productivity (TFP) growth, cost inefficiency, and speed of passenger services. There were discrepancies in performance across companies but ROCE and TFP typically fell during our period. Cost inefficiency rose before 1900 but then was brought under control as a profit…
Work and Pay in 20th Century Britain
Total factor productivity growth on Britain’s railways, 1852–1912
How Did the Location of Industry Respond to Falling Transport Costs in Britain Before World War I
This article explores the location of industry in pre–World War I Britain using a model that takes account both of factor endowment and also of New Economic Geography influences. Broadly speaking, the pattern of industrial location in this period was quite persistent and regional specialization changed little. The econometric results show that factor endowments had much stronger effects than proximity to markets, although the latter was an attrac…
Output Growth and the British Industrial Revolution
N. F. R. Crafts, C. K. Harley, Output Growth and the British Industrial Revolution: A Restatement of the Crafts-Harley View, The Economic History Review, New Series, Vol. 45, No. 4 (Nov., 1992), pp. 703-730
Steam as a General Purpose Technology
The contribution of steam to British economic growth in the nineteenth century is estimated using growth accounting methods similar to those recently employed to examine the role of ICT. The results indicate that steam contributed little to growth before 1830 and had its peak impact about a hundred years after Watt's famous invention. Only with the advent of high-pressure steam after 1850 did the technology realise its potential. Compared with IC…
Industrial Revolution in England and France
Agricultural and Food Policy, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies
British economic growth, 1700–1850; some difficulties of interpretation
Gross national product in Europe 1870–1910
Exogenous or Endogenous Growth? The Industrial Revolution Reconsidered
The British Industrial Revolution is reviewed in the light of recent developments in modeling economic growth. It is argued that ”endogenous innovation” models may be useful in this context particularly for understanding why total factor productivity growth rose only slowly. ”Macroinventions” were central to economic development in this period, however, and these are best seen as exogenous technological shocks. Although new growth theorists would…
Britain's Productivity Gap in the 1930s
This article proposes a reinterpretation of the failure of interwar British productivity levels to match those of the United States. We argue that key elements in poor British productivity performance included inadequate human capital, a bargaining environment that allowed workers to maintain restrictive practices, and collusive agreements that limited the exit of inefficient firms. We suggest that weaknesses in the structure of British firms poi…
British relative economic decline revisited
The Decline of Fertility in Europe
The British Economy since 1945
Journal Article The British Economy since 1945 Get access The British Economy since 1945. Edited by CRAFTS (N. F. R.) and Woodward (Nicholas). (Oxford and New York: Clarendon Press, 1991. Pp. 549. £45.00 hardback, £15.00 paperback. ISBN 0 198772742,0 198772734.) Sidney Pollard Sidney Pollard University of Sheffield Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The Economic Journal, Volume 102, Issue 414, 1 September 199…
English Economic Growth in the Eighteenth Century
Agricultural and Food Policy, International Development
Total factor productivity growth on Britain’s railways, 1852–1912
How Did the Location of Industry Respond to Falling Transport Costs in Britain Before World War I
This article explores the location of industry in pre–World War I Britain using a model that takes account both of factor endowment and also of New Economic Geography influences. Broadly speaking, the pattern of industrial location in this period was quite persistent and regional specialization changed little. The econometric results show that factor endowments had much stronger effects than proximity to markets, although the latter was an attrac…
Competition and Innovation in 1950s Britain
We find little support for the Schumpeterian hypothesis of a positive relationship between market power and innovation in 1950's Britain even though many economists and policymakers accepted it at the time. Pricefixing agreements were very widespread prior to the 1956 Restrictive Practices Act and they seem to have had adverse effects on costs and productivity. Competition policy appears to have been much too lenient but the productivity problems…
The golden age of economic growth in Western Europe, 1950-1973
S ince the mid-ig8os there has been a major resurgence in the economics profession both of theoretical and of empirical research on economic growth. In this article I shall explore the implications of these new ideas for our understanding of the extraordinarily rapid European growth of the early post-Second World War period and, more briefly, of Britain's relative slow growth rate. At the same time I wish to suggest that economists may have somet…
Trends in Real Wages in Britain, 1750-1913
Regional GDP in Britain, 1871–1911
The paper builds on a method proposed by Geary and Stark for estimating regional incomes in Victorian Britain. This is modified by using tax data to allocate non‐wage income across regions. The results suggest that the coefficient of variation of regional GDP per head was rising rapidly prior to World War I in similar fashion to the late 20th century such that its level in 1901 and 2001 was about the same. In both episodes of globalization there …
Regional price variations in England in 1843
The Location of the UK Cotton Textiles Industry in 1838
We examine the geography of cotton textiles in Britain in 1838 to test claims about why the industry came to be so heavily concentrated in Lancashire. Our analysis considers both first and second nature aspects of geography including the availability of water power, humidity, coal prices, market access, and sunk costs. We show that some of these characteristics have substantial explanatory power. Moreover, we exploit the change from water to stea…
Making sense of the manufacturing belt
This article investigates industrial location in the USA around the turn of the 20th century using a model which subsumes both market-potential and factor-endowment arguments. The results show that market potential was central to the existence of the manufacturing belt, that it mattered more than factor endowments, and that its impact came through interactions both with scale economies and with linkage effects. Market potential was generally much…
Were British railway companies well managed in the early twentieth century?1
This paper examines major privately owned British railway companies before the First World War. Quantitative evidence is presented on return on capital employed (ROCE), total factor productivity (TFP) growth, cost inefficiency, and speed of passenger services. There were discrepancies in performance across companies but ROCE and TFP typically fell during our period. Cost inefficiency rose before 1900 but then was brought under control as a profit…
What explains the location of industry in Britain, 1871–1931
Were the new economic geography forces for industry agglomeration and dispersion at work in the movement of industry in pre-1931 Britain where transport costs were falling
Productivity Growth in the Industrial Revolution
The issue of why productivity growth during the British industrial revolution was slow despite the arrival of famous inventions is revisited using a growth accounting methodology based on an embodied innovation model. The results highlight the relatively small and long-delayed impact of steam on productivity growth even when capital deepening is taken into account. Even so, technological change including embodiment effects accounted entirely for …
Duration of Marriage, Fertility and Women's Employment Opportunities in England and Wales in 1911
Data from the 1911 Census of England and Wales are examined for evidence of family limitation early in marriage. It is shown that a substantial number of couples used birth control for ‘spacing’ as well as for ‘stopping’ fertility. Moreover ‘spacing’ of births appears to have been more widespread in districts in which women's employment opportunities were relatively good. In general, the results obtained do not fit with the Princeton view of the …
Comparative Advantage in UK Manufacturing Trade, 1910-1935
Journal Article Comparative Advantage in UK Manufacturing Trade, 1910-1935 Get access N. F. R. Crafts, N. F. R. Crafts University College, Oxford Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Mark Thomas Mark Thomas University of Virginia Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The Economic Journal, Volume 96, Issue 383, 1 September 1986, Pages 629–645, https://doi.org/10.2307/2232982 Pu…
Trade as a Handmaiden of Growth
Journal Article Trade as a Handmaiden of Growth: An Alternative View Get access N. F. R. Crafts N. F. R. Crafts University of Warwick Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The Economic Journal, Volume 83, Issue 331, 1 September 1973, Pages 875–884, https://doi.org/10.2307/2230679 Published: 01 September 1973
The role of simulation techniques in the theory and observation of family formation
The investigation of fertility change can involve the consideration of the results of micro-level empirical studies in the context of an economic theory of family formation. In particular, a change in the observable statistics can then be related to a change in behaviour, or factors influencing behaviour. The analysis of this relationship is hindered, however, by its complexity and by the large number of stochastic variables present. It is argued…
Essays in Quantitative History
Japanese Economic Growth
Family Limitation and the English Demographic Revolution
This seeks to examine the thesis of family limitation in pre-industrial England proposed by E. A. Wrigley on the basis of birth intervals evidence in his famous 1966 paper, "Family Limitation in Pre-industrial England." A simulation model of a stochastic reproductive system is used to investigate the possible effects of a variety offerees acting on birth intervals. It is argued that although the Wrigley hypothesis remains plausible it is likely t…
A simulation of the impact of changes in age at marriage before and during the advent of industrialization in England
The quantitative significance of changes in age at marriage on family size is assessed by applying a simple simulation model of family reproduction, using data broadly related to England in the period 1700-1850. Within this context, the impacts of parity-specific infant mortality, and an association between age at marriage and potential fertility are considered. The evidence concerning variations in marriage and mortality distributions over the p…
Population, Resources and the Future
English Economic Growth in the Eighteenth Century
Agricultural and Food Policy, International Development
Determinants of the rate of parliamentary enclosure
Industrial Revolution in England and France
Agricultural and Food Policy, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies
Enclosure and labor supply revisited
Average age at first marriage for women in mid-nineteenth-century England and Wales
Agricultural and Food Policy, Labor and Human Capital
Entrepreneurship and a Probabilistic View of the British Industrial Revolution
response. First, it is not at all clear that the argument that non-conformists played a vital role in innovation is acceptable. Payne has pointed out that there are very serious difficulties in the way of establishing this proposition in terms of differential survival of records.' Second, it is clear that it is not acceptable to use patent statistics as comparative indices of inventive activity, or of the elasticity of entrepreneurial innovationa…
Technological Change and the British Iron Industry, 1700-1870
Research in Economic History, Vol. 2, 1977
Victorian Britain Did Fail
Agricultural and Food Policy, International Development
National income estimates and the British standard of living debate
Research in Economic History, Vol. 3, 1978
Looking into the Seeds of Time. Social Mechanisms in Economic Developments
Short Notices
Journal Article SHORT NOTICES Get access N. F. R. CRAFTS N. F. R. CRAFTS University CollegeOxford Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The English Historical Review, Volume XCVI, Issue CCCLXXIX, April 1981, Pages 457–458, https://doi.org/10.1093/ehr/XCVI.CCCLXXIX.457 Published: 01 April 1981
Research in Economic History, Vol. 4, 1979
Regional price variations in England in 1843
Illegitimacy in England and Wales in 1911
This paper tests hypotheses put forward by Laslett concerning illegitimacy prior to wand war One. It finds, as Laslett predicts, that age on marriage is inversely related to illegitimacy and that there were substantial differences between localities in illegitimacy. In addition, however, the results also show that economic factors, in particular women's employment opportunities also exercised considerable influence on illegitimacy
British Economic Growth, 1700-1831
British Economic Growth, 1700-1831
Economics (100 obras) · Historical Economic and Social Studies (60 obras) · Political science (54 obras) · Economic Growth and Productivity (41 obras) · History (40 obras) · Geography (33 obras) · Macroeconomics (29 obras) · Industrial Revolution (28 obras) · Sociology (28 obras) · Productivity (25 obras)