The Nature of Countercyclical Income Risk
Dados Bibliográficos
| ID | 10176554 |
|---|---|
| Autores | Fatih Guvenen (Twin Cities Orthopedics), Serdar Ozkan (0000-0001-6364-9606, Federal Reserve), Jae Song (United States Social Security Administration) |
| Ano | 2014 |
| Volume | 122 |
| Fascículo | 3 |
| Páginas | 621-660 |
| Data de publicação | 2014-06-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Sim |
| Open Access | Não |
| Tipo | ARTICLE |
| Periódico | Journal of Political Economy (JOURNAL) |
| Identificadores do periódico | ISSN: 0022-3808 • E-ISSN: 1537-534X |
| Editora | University of Chicago Press (PUBLISHER • US) |
| DOI | 10.1086/675535 |
| OpenAlex | W2105529635 |
| Idioma | EN |
| Citações recebidas | 33 |
| Referências citadas | 26 |
We study business cycle variation in individual earnings risk using a confidential and very large data set from the US Social Security Administration. Contrary to past research, we find that the variance of idiosyncratic shocks is not countercyclical. Instead, it is the left-skewness of shocks that is strongly countercyclical: during recessions, large upward earnings movements become less likely, whereas large drops in earnings become more likely. Second, we find that the fortunes during recessions are predictable by observable characteristics before the recession. Finally, the cyclicality of earnings risk is dramatically different for the top 1 percent compared with the rest of the population
Business cycle · Demographic economics · Earnings · Econometrics · Economics · Macroeconomics · Monetary economics · Population · Recession · Rest (music · Skewness · Social security · Variance (accounting · Finance · Financial Literacy, Pension, Retirement Analysis · Housing Market and Economics · Monetary Policy and Economic Impact
Fluctuations in Uncertainty
Really Uncertain Business Cycles
Innocent Bystanders? Monetary policy and inequality
Inequality in the impact of the coronavirus shock
Distinguishing Strong from Weak Signals in Economic Forecasts
Nonexistent Moments of Earnings Growth
Spread Regression, Skewness Regression, and Kurtosis Regression With an Application to the US Wage Structure
Inference on Buffer‐Stock Saving
Cyclical labour income risk in Great Britain
Did marginal propensities to consume change with the housing boom and bust
Family Income Dynamics 1970–2018
Workers’ Perceptions of Earnings Growth and Employment Risk
Labor Earnings Inequality in Manufacturing during the Great Depression
Male Earnings Volatility in Lehd Before, During, and After the Great Recession
Reconciling Trends in U.S. Male Earnings Volatility
Estimating Trends in Male Earnings Volatility with the Panel Study of Income Dynamics
Managing Public Portfolios
Dissecting the Equity Premium
Banking crises in the US
Age–Income Dynamics over the Life Course
Is the Millennial Generation Left Behind? Inter-Cohort Labour Income Inequality in a Context of Economic Shock
How the Great Recession changed class inequality
On the Nature of Entrepreneurship
A Schumpeterian Model of Top Income Inequality
Asset Pricing
The Discounted Euler Equation
Earnings Responses to Even Higher Taxes
The Cycle of Earnings Inequality
Incomplete Markets and Aggregate Demand
The PSID and Income Volatility
Consumption Inequality
Rising Government Debt
Whose News? Class-Biased Economic Reporting in the United States
Job Mobility and the Careers of Young Men
Earnings Inequality and Mobility in the United States
On the Covariance Structure of Earnings and Hours Changes
Increasing Residual Wage Inequality
Income Variance Dynamics and Heterogeneity
Life-Cycle Variation in the Association between Current and Lifetime Earnings
Trends in U.S. Wage Inequality
Skill-Biased Technological Change and the Business Cycle
Are Earnings Inequality and Mobility Overstated? The Impact of Nonclassical Measurement Error
Income Inequality in the United States, 1913-1998
Heterogeneity and Tests of Risk Sharing
Wage Inequality and the Rise in Returns to Skill
Sectoral Shifts and Cyclical Unemployment
Asset Pricing Implications of Pareto Optimality with Private Information
Cyclical Dynamics in Idiosyncratic Labor Market Risk
Asset Pricing with Heterogeneous Consumers and Limited Participation
Asset Pricing with Heterogeneous Consumers
Models of Business Cycles
| Obras citantes distintas | 33 |
|---|---|
| Citações por ano | 2,75 |
| Intervalo de citações | 2014 - 2026 (13) |
| Velocidade de citação | current |
| Altamente citado | Não |
| Tipos de citação | Neutras: 32 |