Random Emeralds
Dados Bibliográficos
| ID | 10691007 |
|---|---|
| Autores | Sven Neth (0000-0003-4275-7581, University of Pittsburgh, autor correspondente) |
| Ano | 2025 |
| Data de publicação | 2025-04-22 |
| Peer Reviewed | Sim |
| Open Access | Sim |
| Tipo | ARTICLE |
| Periódico | The Philosophical Quarterly (JOURNAL) |
| Identificadores do periódico | ISSN: 0031-8094 • E-ISSN: 1467-9213 |
| Editora | Oxford University Press (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1093/pq/pqaf038 |
| OpenAlex | W4409653874 |
| Idioma | EN |
| Referências citadas | 39 |
Suppose we observe many emeralds which are all green. This observation usually provides good evidence that all emeralds are green. However, the emeralds we have observed are also all grue, which means that they are either green and already observed or blue and not yet observed. We usually do not think that our observation provides good evidence that all emeralds are grue. Why? I argue that if we are in the best case for inductive reasoning, we have reason to assign low probability to the hypothesis that all emeralds are grue before seeing any evidence. My argument appeals to random sampling and the observation-independence of green, understood as probabilistic independence of whether emeralds are green and when they are observed
Bayesian Philosophy of Science
The Significance of Philosophical Scepticism
Quine and the Confirmational Paradoxes
Writing the Book of the World
The independence solution to grue
The Statistical Riddle of Induction
Not Enough There There Evidence, Reasons, and Language Independence
An epistemic solution to Goodman's new riddle of induction
How the Formal Equivalence of Grue and Green Defeats What is New in the New Riddle of Induction
Discussion of Bruno de Finetti's paper ?initial probabilities
Finite forms of de Finetti's theorem on exchangeability
On Projecting Grue
Entropy and Uncertainty
Goodman, ‘Grue’ and Hempel
A Dilemma for Solomonoff Prediction
Solomonoff Prediction and Occam’s Razor
Probability and Evidence
On the Application of Inductive Logic
Ramifications of ‘Grue’
Randomness Is Unpredictability
Engagement and Metaphysical Dissatisfaction
Fact, fiction, and forecast
Preservation of independence and Goodman's riddle
| Velocidade de citação | historical |
|---|---|
| Altamente citado | Não |