Excess Fatal Overdoses in the United States During the Covid-19 Pandemic by Geography and Substance Type

March 2020–August 2021

Dados Bibliográficos

ID11028057
AutoresJay Chandra (0000-0002-1674-0180, Jay Chandra is with Harvard Medical School, Harvard University, Boston, MA. Marie-Laure Charpignon and Munther A. Dahleh are with the Institute for Data, Systems, and Society, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge. Anushka Bhaskar and Andrew Therriault are with the Department of Government, Harvard University, Cambridge. Yea-Hung Chen is with the Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California, San Francisco. Alyssa Mooney is with the Institute for Health Policy Studies,...), Marie-Laure Charpignon (0000-0002-5786-2627, Jay Chandra is with Harvard Medical School, Harvard University, Boston, MA. Marie-Laure Charpignon and Munther A. Dahleh are with the Institute for Data, Systems, and Society, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge. Anushka Bhaskar and Andrew Therriault are with the Department of Government, Harvard University, Cambridge. Yea-Hung Chen is with the Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California, San Francisco. Alyssa Mooney is with the Institute for Health Policy Studies,...), Anushka Bhaskar (0000-0002-6018-9058, Jay Chandra is with Harvard Medical School, Harvard University, Boston, MA. Marie-Laure Charpignon and Munther A. Dahleh are with the Institute for Data, Systems, and Society, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge. Anushka Bhaskar and Andrew Therriault are with the Department of Government, Harvard University, Cambridge. Yea-Hung Chen is with the Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California, San Francisco. Alyssa Mooney is with the Institute for Health Policy Studies,...), Andrew Therriault (Jay Chandra is with Harvard Medical School, Harvard University, Boston, MA. Marie-Laure Charpignon and Munther A. Dahleh are with the Institute for Data, Systems, and Society, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge. Anushka Bhaskar and Andrew Therriault are with the Department of Government, Harvard University, Cambridge. Yea-Hung Chen is with the Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California, San Francisco. Alyssa Mooney is with the Institute for Health Policy Studies,...), Yea-Hung Chen (Jay Chandra is with Harvard Medical School, Harvard University, Boston, MA. Marie-Laure Charpignon and Munther A. Dahleh are with the Institute for Data, Systems, and Society, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge. Anushka Bhaskar and Andrew Therriault are with the Department of Government, Harvard University, Cambridge. Yea-Hung Chen is with the Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California, San Francisco. Alyssa Mooney is with the Institute for Health Policy Studies,...), Yea‐Hung Chen (0000-0002-7949-0692, Baim Institute for Clinical Research), Alyssa Mooney (Jay Chandra is with Harvard Medical School, Harvard University, Boston, MA. Marie-Laure Charpignon and Munther A. Dahleh are with the Institute for Data, Systems, and Society, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge. Anushka Bhaskar and Andrew Therriault are with the Department of Government, Harvard University, Cambridge. Yea-Hung Chen is with the Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California, San Francisco. Alyssa Mooney is with the Institute for Health Policy Studies,...), Munther A Dahleh (0000-0002-1470-2148, Jay Chandra is with Harvard Medical School, Harvard University, Boston, MA. Marie-Laure Charpignon and Munther A. Dahleh are with the Institute for Data, Systems, and Society, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge. Anushka Bhaskar and Andrew Therriault are with the Department of Government, Harvard University, Cambridge. Yea-Hung Chen is with the Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California, San Francisco. Alyssa Mooney is with the Institute for Health Policy Studies,...), Mathew V Kiang (0000-0001-9198-150X, Jay Chandra is with Harvard Medical School, Harvard University, Boston, MA. Marie-Laure Charpignon and Munther A. Dahleh are with the Institute for Data, Systems, and Society, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge. Anushka Bhaskar and Andrew Therriault are with the Department of Government, Harvard University, Cambridge. Yea-Hung Chen is with the Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California, San Francisco. Alyssa Mooney is with the Institute for Health Policy Studies,...), Francesca Dominici (0000-0002-9382-0141, Jay Chandra is with Harvard Medical School, Harvard University, Boston, MA. Marie-Laure Charpignon and Munther A. Dahleh are with the Institute for Data, Systems, and Society, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge. Anushka Bhaskar and Andrew Therriault are with the Department of Government, Harvard University, Cambridge. Yea-Hung Chen is with the Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California, San Francisco. Alyssa Mooney is with the Institute for Health Policy Studies,...)
Ano2024
Volume114
Fascículo6
Páginas599-609
Data de publicação2024-06-01
Peer ReviewedSim
Open AccessNão
TipoARTICLE
PeriódicoAmerican Journal of Public Health (JOURNAL)
Identificadores do periódicoISSN: 0090-0036 • E-ISSN: 1541-0048
EditoraAmerican Public Health Association (PUBLISHER • US)
DOI10.2105/ajph.2024.307618
PMID38718338
OpenAlexW4396757805
IdiomaEN
Referências citadas30

Objectives. To assess heterogeneity in pandemic-period excess fatal overdoses in the United States, by location (state, county) and substance type. Methods. We used seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models to estimate counterfactual death counts in the scenario that no pandemic had occurred. Such estimates were subtracted from actual death counts to assess the magnitude of pandemic-period excess mortality between March 2020 and August 2021. Results. Nationwide, we estimated 25 668 (95% prediction interval [PI] = 2811, 48 524) excess overdose deaths. Specifically, 17 of 47 states and 197 of 592 counties analyzed had statistically significant excess overdose-related mortality. West Virginia, Louisiana, Tennessee, Kentucky, and New Mexico had the highest rates (20–37 per 100 000). Nationally, there were 5.7 (95% PI = 1.0, 10.4), 3.1 (95% PI = 2.1, 4.2), and 1.4 (95% PI = 0.5, 2.4) excess deaths per 100 000 involving synthetic opioids, psychostimulants, and alcohol, respectively. Conclusions. The steep increase in overdose-related mortality affected primarily the southern and western United States. We identified synthetic opioids and psychostimulants as the main contributors. Public Health Implications. Characterizing overdose-related excess mortality across locations and substance types is critical for optimal allocation of public health resources. ( Am J Public Health. 2024;114(6):599–609. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2024.307618 )

Confidence interval · Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) · Disease · Drug overdose · Environmental health · Excess mortality · Infectious disease (medical specialty) · Pandemic · Poison control · Population · Public health · COVID-19 and healthcare impacts · COVID-19 and Mental Health · Demography · Medicine · Opioid Use Disorder Treatment