Internal consistency of demographic assumptions in the shared socioeconomic pathways

Dados Bibliográficos

ID11387441
AutoresLeiwen Jiang (0000-0002-2073-6440, NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, autor correspondente)
Ano2014
Volume35
Fascículo3
Páginas261-285
Data de publicação2014-03-01
Peer ReviewedSim
Open AccessSim
TipoARTICLE
PeriódicoPopulation and Environment (JOURNAL)
Identificadores do periódicoISSN: 0199-0039 • E-ISSN: 1573-7810
EditoraSpringer Science and Business Media LLC (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1007/s11111-014-0206-3
PMID24659845
PMCIDPMC3950603
OpenAlexW2132233663
IdiomaEN
Citações recebidas6
Referências citadas117

A new set of alternative socioeconomic scenarios for climate change researches-the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs)-includes for the first time a more comprehensive set of demographic conditions on population, urbanization, and education as the central scenario elements, along with other aspects of society, in order to facilitate better analyses of challenges to climate change mitigation and adaptation. However, it also raises a new question about the internal consistency of assumptions on different demographic and economic trends under each SSP. This paper examines whether the interactions between the demographic and economic factors implied by the assumptions in the SSP projections are consistent with the research literature, and whether they are consistently represented in the projection results. Our analysis shows that the interactions implied by the demographic assumptions in the SSPs are generally consistent with findings from the literature, and the majority of the assumed relationships are also evident in the projected trends. It also reveals some inconsistency issues, resulting mainly from the use of inconsistent definitions of regions and limitations in our understanding of future changes in the patterns of interactions at different stages of socioeconomic development. Finally, we offer recommendations on how to improve demographic assumptions in the extended SSPs, and how to use the projections of SSP central elements in climate change research

Adaptation (eye · Climate change · Consistency (knowledge bases · Demographic change · Economic geography · Economic growth · Economics · Geography · Order (exchange · Population · Regional science · Set (abstract data type · Socioeconomic development · Socioeconomic status · Sociology · Urbanization · Climate Change, Adaptation, Migration · Computer Science · demographic modeling and climate adaptation · Demography · Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth · Psychology