Further Comment on J. Blake’s “Can we Believe Recent Data on Birth Expectations in the United States?”

Blake (1974) has recently called attention to the significant decrease in birth expectations among the American public. Using several data sources, Blake shows that the recent record-low birth expectations are incongruent with other American reproductive attitudes including a tolerance for the large family and an aversion to childlessness and the onechild family. She therefore concludes that birth expectations should be used with caution, especially . . as valid indicators of the long-run intentions of youthful cohorts (Blake, 1974, p. 25). Regardless of whether recent decreases in birth expectations represent an intrusion into fertility surveys of stereotyped responses, a short-term attitudinal change, or a long-term transformation of reproductive motives, it is important to know the cause for the decrease in reported birth expectations. Blake's thesis is that A share of the recent decline in birth expectations of young American wives may be due to the historically unique stimulus of intense public attention to population growth and family (p. 25). This thesis is supported by a nonquantitative, societal-level association between an increase in media coverage of population problems and a decrease in ideal family size. Although the observations and arguments supporting Blake's societallevel association are plausible, no direct empirical evidence is presented showing that individutals who have had differential exposure to the media, who are more or less informed about population problems, or who vary in their concern about population growth also exhibit associated differences in ideal family size. The absence of an association between awareness of or concern over population problems and relatively low ideal family size responses would significantly weaken Blake's interpretation while the presence of an association would provide support. The purpose of this comment is therefore to examine the relationship, on an individual level, between one possible dimension-concern for population problems-of Blake's hypothetical independent variable and ideal family size

Birth rate · Childlessness · Demographic economics · Economics · Family planning · Fertility · National Survey of Family Growth · Population · Research methodology · Sociology · Demographic Trends and Gender Preferences · Demography · Family Dynamics and Relationships · Psychology · Social Psychology

• Can we Believe Recent Data on Birth Expectations in the United States

  Open Access•Judith Blake•Demography•1974

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• The 99th Hour

  Ted T Jitodai, Daniel O Prices et al.•American Sociological Review•1968

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• Too Many Americans

  Charles F Westoff, Lincoln H Day et al.•American Sociological Review•1964

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