Predicted Earnings Losses from Graduating during Covid-19

Dados Bibliográficos

ID11969407
AutoresDerek Messacar (Social Analysis and Modelling Division, Statistics Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, and Department of Economics, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John’s, Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada, autor correspondente), Tomasz M Handler (Statistics Canada), Tomasz Handler (Statistics Canada), Marc Frenette (Statistics Canada)
Ano2021
Volume47
Fascículo2
Páginas301-315
Data de publicação2021-03-03
Peer ReviewedSim
Open AccessNão
TipoARTICLE
PeriódicoCanadian Public Policy (JOURNAL)
Identificadores do periódicoISSN: 0317-0861 • E-ISSN: 1911-9917
EditoraUniversity of Toronto Press Inc. (UTPress) (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.3138/cpp.2020-109
PMID36039316
OpenAlexW3133596884
IdiomaEN
Citações recebidas2
Referências citadas16

Poor labour market conditions at the start of a worker's career can result in earnings losses for many years. The 2021 cohort of Canadian high school and post-secondary students have seen employment prospects diminish amid economic lockdowns to contain the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The goal of this article is to predict earnings losses for this cohort. We use Census of Population data to show that a 1 percent increase in unemployment at the time of graduation leads to a 1.5-4 percent average decrease in earnings. Then, using unemployment rate forecasts from various sources, we predict how this year's graduating class is expected to fare. Our approach assumes previous recessions are informative about the effects of the current recession. We estimate that a typical 2021 graduate loses 5-12 percent of the amount they would have earned over the first few years if the pandemic had not occurred

Art · Cohort · Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19 · Demographic economics · Earnings · Economic growth · Economics · Graduation (instrument · Humanities · Political science · Population · Recession · Sociology · Unemployment · COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts · Demography · Employment and Welfare Studies · Engineering · Medicine · Psychological Well-being and Life Satisfaction · Accounting