C hallenges for D emocratization in C entral A sia

T he agenda of post-communist transformation seemed to have faded away in Central Asian countries until the tragic terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001.In the aftermath of the Iraq War, democratization in "failed" and authoritarian states has rapidly become the focus of U.S. foreign policy.Since the events in Kyrgyzstan, Central Asia has been added to the debate on third-wave democratization that has been witnessed in Georgia and Ukraine.In light of the increasing turbulence in Iraq and the unexpected death of Turkmenistan's President Niyazov, the challenges for democratization in Central Asia should be reevaluated.This article argues that the prospects for democracy in that region are vulnerable to internal and external actors as well as structural problems in the individual states, which possess vast energy resources and crucial routes for exporting them.Thus, to avoid the error of coddling dictators to serve its agenda, the United States should consider developing a longer-term policy that takes into consideration not only the strategic importance of Central Asia, but also the development of its civil society. STRATEGIC CONSIDERATIONSFor much of the 1990s, U.S. economic assistance to the region was delivered under the auspices of the Freedom Support Act, but levels of funding fluctuated. 1 Assistance has increased with the implementation of Operation Enduring Freedom. 2 Transferring nuclear weapons out of Kazakhstan and preventing Iran's involvement in oil and gas projects in the region were the priorities of U.S. foreign policy in the 1990s. 3 The post-September 11 rhetoric of U.S. foreign policy insists that democracy is essential to the undermining of conditions that engender terrorism.However, the strategy of the Bush administration, at least for now, is largely focused on the military aspect of the global war on terrorism.The presence of the U.S. airbase outside the Manas Airport in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan -despite the removal of

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