The short and long-term impact of Syrian refugees on the Turkish economy

A simulation approach

Dados Bibliográficos

ID12697148
AutoresRamón Mahía Casado (0000-0002-2560-2708, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, autor correspondente), Rafael de Arce Borda (0000-0003-1320-9252, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid), A Ali Koç (0000-0001-7225-0349, Department of Economics, Akdeniz University, Antalya, Turkey), Gülden Bölük (0000-0001-8901-8503, Department of Economics, Akdeniz University, Antalya, Turkey)
Ano2019
Volume21
Fascículo5
Páginas661-683
Data de publicação2019-11-18
Peer ReviewedSim
Open AccessSim
TipoARTICLE
PeriódicoTurkish Studies (JOURNAL)
Identificadores do periódicoISSN: 1468-3849 • E-ISSN: 1743-9663
EditoraTaylor & Francis (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1080/14683849.2019.1691920
OpenAlexW2990203810
IdiomaEN
Citações recebidas6
Referências citadas20

This article presents the results of a simulation on the short-, medium- and long-term aggregated economic contribution of Syrian refugees on the Turkish economy. The simulation is focused on two sources of impact: refugees’ access to the Turkish labor market and the investment flow generated by Syrians inside the country. An input–output approach is used to compute economic effects considering the intersectoral linkages of the Turkish economy, thereby expanding the focus of a classic impact study. Our results show a positive economic impact of Syrian refugees of around 2 percent of GDP in the short term and 4 percent in the long term. Syrian immigration in Turkey is becoming a factor of economic dynamism that not only benefits the Syrian community itself but also the Turkish host communities. The direct and indirect contribution in terms of production and demand is very relevant and, properly channeled and promoted, can become a relative advantage for the country and not a burden of care

Development economics · Dynamism · Economics · Economy · Foreign direct investment · Immigration · Macroeconomics · Medium term · Political science · Refugee · Syrian refugees · Turkish · Turkish economy · Migration and Labor Dynamics · Migration, Health and Trauma · Migration, Refugees, and Integration