Vulnerability to poverty revisited
Flexible modeling and better predictive performance
Dados Bibliográficos
| ID | 12836618 |
|---|---|
| Autores | Maike Hohberg (0000-0003-2860-1863, University of Göttingen, autor correspondente), Katja Landau (University of Göttingen), Thomas Kneib (0000-0003-3390-0972, University of Göttingen), Stephan Klasen (0000-0003-4078-755X, University of Göttingen), Walter Zucchini (University of Göttingen) |
| Ano | 2018 |
| Volume | 16 |
| Fascículo | 3 |
| Páginas | 439-454 |
| Data de publicação | 2018-02-03 |
| Peer Reviewed | Sim |
| Open Access | Sim |
| Tipo | ARTICLE |
| Periódico | The Journal of Economic Inequality (JOURNAL) |
| Identificadores do periódico | ISSN: 1569-1721 • E-ISSN: 1573-8701 |
| Editora | Springer Science+Business Media (PUBLISHER • DE) |
| DOI | 10.1007/s10888-017-9374-6 |
| OpenAlex | W2788150453 |
| Idioma | EN |
| Citações recebidas | 9 |
| Referências citadas | 29 |
This paper analyzes several modifications to improve a simple measure of vulnerability as expected poverty. Firstly, in order to model income, we apply distributional regression relating potentially each parameter of the conditional income distribution to the covariates. Secondly, we determine the vulnerability cutoff endogenously instead of defining a household as vulnerable if its probability of being poor in the next period is larger than 0.5. For this purpose, we employ the receiver operating characteristic curve that is able to consider prerequisites according to a particular targeting mechanism. Using long-term panel data from Germany, we build both mean and distributional regression models with the established 0.5 probability cutoff and our vulnerability cutoff. We find that our new cutoff considerably increases predictive performance. Placing the income regression model into the distributional regression framework does not improve predictions further but has the advantage of a coherent model where parameters are estimated simultaneously replacing the original three step estimation approach
Conditional probability distribution · Covariate · Cutoff · Econometrics · Economics · Poverty · Receiver operating characteristic · Regression · Regression analysis · Statistics · Vulnerability (computing · Agricultural risk and resilience · Computer Science · Food Security and Health in Diverse Populations · Income, Poverty, and Inequality · Mathematics
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Estimating Households Vulnerability to Idiosyncratic and Covariate Shocks
Implications of Non-Farm Work to Vulnerability to Food Poverty-Recent Evidence From Northern Ghana
Measuring Vulnerability
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| Obras citantes distintas | 9 |
|---|---|
| Citações por ano | 1,5 |
| Intervalo de citações | 2020 - 2025 (6) |
| Velocidade de citação | recent |
| Altamente citado | Não |
| Tipos de citação | Neutras: 9 |