On fiscal rules, gross domestic product forecasts and prediction of economic crises

This is a reply to Fredrik Anderson's (2022) article, 'Macroeconomic equilibriums, crises and fiscal policy'. In 'Macroeconomic equilibriums, crises and fiscal policy', Fredrik Anderson considers an aspect of the much-discussed problem of public debt targets in macroeconomic policy. The main message of the article is that '[T]he target for the debt ratio should be set low enough to allow the government to increase the public debt by 30 to 50 percentage points during a crisis without increasing the risk of a future fiscal crisis'; therefore, 'The level of 60 per cent as the pre-crisis debt target is likely too high to avoid a fiscal crisis' (Anderson, 2022)

Autoregressive integrated moving average · Debt · Economics · Financial crisis · Fiscal policy · Gross domestic product · Macroeconomics · Statistics · Time series · Fiscal Policies and Political Economy · Monetary Policy and Economic Impact

• Crisis

  Thomas Gammeltoft-Hansen, Helle Rydstrøm et al.•Global Discourse•2022

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• Macroeconomic equilibriums, crises and fiscal policy

  Fredrik Andersson•Global Discourse•2022

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