Cost of inaction on sugar-sweetened beverage consumption

Implications for obesity in South Africa

Dados Bibliográficos

ID15097579
AutoresAviva Tugendhaft (0000-0003-4104-4299, Agincourt Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance System), Mercy Manyema (0000-0001-9123-1952, University of the Witwatersrand), Lennert J Veerman, Lennert Veerman (0000-0002-3206-8232, The University of Queensland), Lumbwe Chola (0000-0001-6488-2813, University of the Witwatersrand), Demetre Labadarios (0000-0001-7065-2360, Human Sciences Research Council), Karen J Hofman, Karen Hofman (0000-0001-9512-7220, Agincourt Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance System, autor correspondente)
Ano2016
Volume19
Fascículo13
Páginas2296-2304
Data de publicação2016-09-01
Peer ReviewedSim
Open AccessSim
TipoARTICLE
PeriódicoPublic Health Nutrition (JOURNAL)
Identificadores do periódicoISSN: 1368-9800 • E-ISSN: 1475-2727
EditoraCambridge University Press (CUP) (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1017/s1368980015003006
PMID26494269
OpenAlexW2177119778
IdiomaEN
Citações recebidas7
Referências citadas16

Objective To estimate the effect of increased sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) consumption on future adult obesity prevalence in South Africa in the absence of preventive measures. Design A model was constructed to simulate the effect of a 2·4 % annual increase in SSB consumption on obesity prevalence. The model computed the change in energy intake assuming a compounding increase in SSB consumption. The population distribution of BMI by age and sex was modelled by fitting measured data from the 2012 South African National Income Dynamics Survey to the log-normal distribution and shifting the mean values. Setting Over the past decade the prevalence of obesity and related non-communicable diseases has increased in South Africa, as have the sales and availability of SSB. Soft drink sales in South Africa are projected to grow between 2012 and 2017 at an annual compounded growth rate of 2·4 % in the absence of preventive measures to curb consumption. Results A 2·4 % annual growth in SSB sales alongside population growth and ageing will result in an additional 1 287 000 obese adults in South Africa by 2017, 22 % of which will be due to increased SSB consumption. Conclusions In order to meet the South African target of reducing the number of people who are obese and/or overweight by 10 % by 2020, the country cannot afford to delay implementing effective population-wide interventions. In the face of plans to increase growth of SSB, the country will soon face even greater challenges in overcoming obesity and related non-communicable diseases

Business · Consumption (sociology · Distribution (mathematics · Environmental health · Geography · Obesity · Overweight · Population · Population growth · Psychological intervention · Demography · Global Public Health Policies and Epidemiology · Medicine · Nutritional Studies and Diet · Obesity, Physical Activity, Diet