Evaluation and Future Projection of Extreme Climate Events in the Yellow River Basin and Yangtze River Basin in China Using Ensembled CMIP5 Models Data

Dados Bibliográficos

ID15512842
AutoresZigeng Niu (0000-0001-6342-4650, China University of Geosciences), Lan Feng (0000-0002-9340-5618, China University of Geosciences, autor correspondente), Xinxin Chen (0000-0002-1447-2661, China University of Geosciences), Xiuping Yi (China University of Geosciences)
Ano2021
Volume18
Fascículo11
Páginas6029-6029
Data de publicação2021-06-03
Open AccessSim
TipoARTICLE
PeriódicoInternational Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health (JOURNAL)
Identificadores do periódicoISSN: 1661-7827 • E-ISSN: 1660-4601
EditoraMultidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (PUBLISHER • CH)
DOI10.3390/ijerph18116029
PMID34205168
OpenAlexW3172357922
IdiomaEN
Citações recebidas1
Referências citadas90

The Yellow River Basin (YLRB) and Yangtze River Basin (YZRB) are heavily populated, important grain-producing areas in China, and they are sensitive to climate change. In order to study the temporal and spatial distribution of extreme climate events in the two river basins, seven extreme temperature indices and seven extreme precipitation indices were projected for the periods of 2010-2039, 2040-2069, and 2070-2099 using data from 16 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models, and the delta change and reliability ensemble averaging (REA) methods were applied to obtain more robust ensemble values. First, the present evaluation indicated that the simulations satisfactorily reproduced the spatial distribution of temperature extremes, and the spatial distribution of precipitation extremes was generally suitably captured. Next, the REA values were adopted to conduct projections under different representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (i.e., RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) in the 21st century. Warming extremes were projected to increase while cold events were projected to decrease, particularly on the eastern Tibetan Plateau, the Loess Plateau, and the lower reaches of the YZRB. In addition, the number of wet days (CWD) was projected to decrease in most regions of the two basins, but the highest five-day precipitation (Rx5day) and precipitation intensity (SDII) index values were projected to increase in the YZRB. The number of consecutive dry days (CDD) was projected to decrease in the northern and western regions of the two basins. Specifically, the warming trends in the two basins were correlated with altitude and atmospheric circulation patterns, and the wetting trends were related to the atmospheric water vapor content increases in summer and the strength of external radiative forcing. Notably, the magnitude of the changes in the extreme climate events was projected to increase with increasing warming targets, especially under the RCP8.5 scenario

China · Climate change · Climate model · Climatology · Coupled model intercomparison project · Drainage basin · Geography · Meteorology · Physical geography · Plateau (mathematics · Precipitation · Representative Concentration Pathways · Spatial distribution · Structural basin · Climate variability and models · Environmental Science · Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies · Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations · Geology