Combined impact of the cold vortex and atmospheric blocking on cold outbreaks over East Asia and the potential for short-range prediction of such occurrences

This study explores the consequences of independent and combined effects of blockings on the northeast Asian cold vortex (NACV), and corresponding cold outbreaks over East Asia (EA) during boreal winters of 1979–2019. The results show that the development of NACV is closely associated with blocking over the Ural Mountains (UB) upstream and eastern Siberia to mid-North Pacific (SPB) downstream. Here we focus on the initial periods before the peak day of NACV events. It is found that the strong NACV events are usually induced by the initial-UB situation, leading to the greatest temperature drop in EA. While the weak NACV events may be associated with the initial-SPB condition, which can bring less dramatic outbreaks but longer duration, owing to the Ural ridge that formed by the westward shift of SPB. Furthermore, an SPB-UB relay effect is discovered against the background of a negative Arctic Oscillation pattern. In such cases, UB is formed by the westward shift of downstream SPB after the occurrence of NACV, forming a relay effect that motivates the second NACV process, hence prolonging the duration of cold anomalies in EA. These findings highlight the importance of the combined effect of blockings and NACV in the intraseasonal time scale. Compared to the ‘Initial-UB’ and ‘Initial-SPB’ situation, this ‘SPB-UB relay’ scenario can produce longer-lasting cold extreme in EA, which may be indicative of the short-term weather forecasting of such extreme cold weather

Arctic · Arctic oscillation · Atmospheric sciences · Climatology · East Asia · Extreme Cold · Geography · Meteorology · Polar vortex · Ridge · Siberian High · Stratosphere · Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics · Climate variability and models · Environmental Science · Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations · Geology · Oceanography

• Characterizing blocking mobility and its role in Northern Hemisphere cold extremes

  Open Access•Seon‐Hwa Kim, Baek‐Min Kim•Environmental Research Letters•2025

  Incluir item

• Strengthened impact of late autumn Arctic sea ice on Asian winter cold extremes after 1999/2000

  Open Access•Cen Wang, Hui Su et al.•Environmental Research Letters•2024

  Incluir item

• European heatwave tracks

  Open Access•Andrea Böhnisch, Elizaveta Felsche et al.•Environmental Research Letters•2022

  Incluir item

• Recent Arctic amplification and extreme mid-latitude weather

  Open Access•Judah Cohen, James A Screen et al.•Nature Geoscience•2014

  Incluir item

• Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid‐latitudes

  Open Access•Jennifer A Francis, Stephen J Vavrus•Geophysical Research Letters•2012

  Incluir item

• The ERA5 global reanalysis

  Open Access•Hans Hersbach, Bill Bell et al.•Quarterly Journal of the Royal…•2020

  Incluir item

• Weakened cyclones, intensified anticyclones and recent extreme cold winter weather events in Eurasia

  Open Access•Xiangdong Zhang, Chuhan Lu et al.•Environmental Research Letters•2012

  Incluir item

• What are the physical links between Arctic sea ice loss and Eurasian winter climate

  Open Access•Ian Simmonds, Pallavi Govekar et al.•Environmental Research Letters•2014

  Incluir item

• Cold winter extremes in northern continents linked to Arctic sea ice loss

  Open Access•Qiuhong Tang, Xuejun Zhang et al.•Environmental Research Letters•2013

  Incluir item