Empirically based spatial projections of US population age structure consistent with the shared socioeconomic pathways

Dados Bibliográficos

ID15545786
AutoresErich Striessnig (0000-0001-5419-9498, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, autor correspondente), Jing Gao (0000-0002-0020-0622, University of Delaware), Brian C O''Neill (0000-0001-7505-8897, University of Denver), Leiwen Jiang (0000-0002-2073-6440, Population Council)
Ano2019
Volume14
Fascículo11
Páginas114038-114038
Data de publicação2019-10-02
Peer ReviewedSim
Open AccessSim
TipoARTICLE
PeriódicoEnvironmental Research Letters (JOURNAL)
Identificadores do periódicoISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326
EditoraIOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1088/1748-9326/ab4a3a
OpenAlexW2977506980
IdiomaEN
Citações recebidas5
Referências citadas29

Spatially-explicit population projections by age are increasingly needed for understanding bilateral human–environment interactions. Conventional demographic methods for projecting age structure experience substantial challenges at small spatial scales. In search of a potentially better-performing alternative, we develop an empirically based spatial model of population age structure and test its application in projecting US population age structure over the 21st century under various socioeconomic scenarios (SSPs). The model draws on 40 years of historical data explaining changes in spatial age distribution at the county level. It demonstrates that a very good model fit is achievable even with parsimonious data input, and distinguishes itself from existing methods as a promising approach to spatial age structure modeling at the global level where data availability is often limited. Results suggest that wide variations in the spatial pattern of county-level age structure are plausible, with the possibility of substantial aging clustered in particular parts of the country. Aging is experienced most prominently in thinly populated counties in the Midwest and the Rocky Mountains, while cities and surrounding counties, particularly in California, as well as the southern parts of New England and the Mid-Atlantic region, maintain a younger population age structure with a lower proportion in the most vulnerable 70+ age group. The urban concentration of younger people, as well as the absolute number of vulnerable elderly people can vary strongly by SSP

Age structure · Cartography · Economic geography · Geography · Population · Regional science · Socioeconomic status · Sociology · Health disparities and outcomes · Migration, Aging, and Tourism Studies · Urban Transport and Accessibility · Demography