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Economic Dynamics of the Early Roman Empire

Insights from Lead Pollution, Coinage, Weather, and War

Dados Bibliográficos

ID19214239
AutoresLuigi Oddo (0000-0003-3955-1443, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, autor correspondente), Silvio Traverso (0000-0003-1128-1402, Università degli Studi del Piemonte Orientale “Amedeo Avogadro”), Koenraad Verboven (0000-0002-5124-422X, Ghent University Hospital)
Ano2024
Volume101
Páginas101765-101765
Data de publicação2024-01-01
Peer ReviewedSim
Open AccessSim
TipoARTICLE
PeriódicoExplorations in Economic History (JOURNAL)
Identificadores do periódicoISSN: 0014-4983 • E-ISSN: 1090-2457
EditoraElsevier BV (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1016/j.eeh.2026.101765
OpenAlexW4401534565
IdiomaEN
Referências citadas49

This study examines the relationship between anthropogenic lead pollution recorded in Greenland ice cores and economic dynamics during the Pax Romana (27 BC–180 AD), a period of relative political, institutional and technological stability in the Early Roman Empire. Our findings reveal that approximately one-fourth of the annual variability in lead pollution during this period can be explained by summer temperatures, silver coin output, and warfare – three factors plausibly linked to fluctuations of the Empire’s economy. Using annual time-series analysis, we integrate high-resolution paleoclimatic, paleoenvironmental, and cliometric data to investigate short-run economic dynamics in an ancient society. Specifically, our results suggest that warmer summers, which likely boosted agricultural yields, were positively associated with increased economic activity. In contrast, higher production of silver coins and periods of warfare were associated with lower levels of lead emissions, suggesting that these factors were associated with periods of weaker aggregate economic activity. Our analysis also provides formal statistical support for the hypothesis that historical lead pollution levels contain valuable information about economic activity in ancient Europe, thereby corroborating a highly debated claim in the literature

Ancient history · Economic history · Economics · Economy · Empire · Lead (geology) · Lead pollution · Natural resource economics · Roman Empire · Ancient and Medieval Archaeology Studies · Ancient Mediterranean Archaeology and History · Archaeology and Historical Studies · Classical Antiquity Studies · Ecology · Environmental Science · Eurasian Exchange Networks · Geology · History · Pollution

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