The race for an artificial general intelligence

Implications for public policy

Dados Bibliográficos

ID20396273
AutoresWim Naudé (0000-0003-2496-6945, RWTH Aachen University, autor correspondente), Nicola Dimitri (0000-0001-7099-3229, University of Siena)
Ano2020
Volume35
Fascículo2
Páginas367-379
Data de publicação2020-06-01
Peer ReviewedSim
Open AccessSim
TipoARTICLE
PeriódicoAI & Society (JOURNAL)
Identificadores do periódicoISSN: 0951-5666 • E-ISSN: 1435-5655
EditoraSpringer Science and Business Media LLC (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1007/s00146-019-00887-x
OpenAlexW2889205798
IdiomaEN
Citações recebidas21
Referências citadas29

An arms race for an artificial general intelligence (AGI) would be detrimental for and even pose an existential threat to humanity if it results in an unfriendly AGI. In this paper, an all-pay contest model is developed to derive implications for public policy to avoid such an outcome. It is established that, in a winner-takes-all race, where players must invest in R&D, only the most competitive teams will participate. Thus, given the difficulty of AGI, the number of competing teams is unlikely ever to be very large. It is also established that the intention of teams competing in an AGI race, as well as the possibility of an intermediate outcome (prize), is important. The possibility of an intermediate prize will raise the probability of finding the dominant AGI application and, hence, will make public control more urgent. It is recommended that the danger of an unfriendly AGI can be reduced by taxing AI and using public procurement. This would reduce the pay-off of contestants, raise the amount of R&D needed to compete, and coordinate and incentivize co-operation. This will help to alleviate the control and political problems in AI. Future research is needed to elaborate the design of systems of public procurement of AI innovation and for appropriately adjusting the legal frameworks underpinning high-tech innovation, in particular dealing with patenting by AI

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