Svalbard and Conflict Management in a Changing Climate

Dados Bibliográficos

ID21569751
AutoresJohn Ash (UiT The Arctic University of Norway, autor correspondente)
Ano2020
Fascículo45
Data de publicação2020-02-01
Peer ReviewedSim
Open AccessSim
TipoARTICLE
PeriódicoNordlit (JOURNAL)
Identificadores do periódicoISSN: 0809-1668 • E-ISSN: 1503-2086
EditoraUiT The Arctic University of Norway (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.7557/13.5027
OpenAlexW3007169122
IdiomaEN
Referências citadas21

Conflict in the Arctic is nothing new, and Svalbard is a geographical confluence of factors that create the potential for inter-group violence. The purpose of this paper is to explore those factors, identifying approaches to the evaluation of their associated risk. The emphasis is on biomarine resources, which at present constitute the most likely focus for escalating disputes. Contributory factors, including the catalytic effects of climate change, will also be considered. Given the political progress that has been achieved recently, the most likely situation for an intense interstate conflict in the short term is one that spreads tothe Arctic, rather than one igniting within it. However, as the century progresses, dormant problems relating to the Svalbard archipelago will combine with environmental, economic and political trends to exacerbate conflict risk. Traditionally, armed conflict has been viewed as a phenomenon that cannot be predicted. This view is identified as dangerously misleading. Using a risk based approach and noting advances in analytical techniques, representative scenarios in which conflict may occur are examined and prospective methods of risk management identified

Archipelago · Arctic · Business · Climate change · Economics · Environmental planning · Environmental resource management · Epistemology · Geography · Nothing · Political science · Politics · Risk management · The arctic · Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics · Arctic and Russian Policy Studies · Law · Ecology