Ecological and economic impacts of ocean deoxygenation on Pacific halibut fisheries

The ocean has been losing oxygen content since at least the last century, and the rate of decline is accelerated by climate-induced changes like ocean warming, acidification, and anthropogenic driven nutrient load. Oxygen loss alters marine ecosystems and life, and consequently, human-wellbeing based on fisheries. Since marine fishes are known to be the most sensitive to deoxygenation, their mortality, growth, and abundance are affected by dissolved oxygen levels. Hence, fisheries relying on fish stocks are also impacted, with significant economic repercussions for society. The ability to estimate the economic impacts of deoxygenation on fisheries is hampered by the uncertain link between biogeochemical pathways and socio-economic impacts. Thus, we conducted a multidisciplinary modeling approach integrating ecological (metabolic rate index), biological (stock biomass dynamics), and economic (economic rent based on MSY) components to assess the economic ramifications of ocean deoxygenation (2020-2100) on the British Columbia Pacific halibut fishery.We find that under conditions of up to 40% reduction in dissolved oxygen and a 30% increase in temperature by 2100, Pacific halibut biomass could decrease by 66% ~ 89%. This significant decrease in catch could lead to an estimated cumulative economic loss of around $100 million by 2100. Ripple effects throughout the supply chain, including secondary (processing) and tertiary industries (distribution, marketing), could cause an additional economic impact loss of up to $197 million by 2100. Therefore, our study suggests it is crucial for the Pacific Halibut Commission and fisheries to incorporate adaptation and mitigation strategies to counteract ongoing deoxygenation and warming

Biogeochemical cycle · Economic impact analysis · Exclusive economic zone · Fishing · Halibut · Marine ecosystem · Overfishing · Marine and coastal ecosystems · Marine and fisheries research · Ocean Acidification Effects and Responses

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