Chinese economic thought on population from the 1850s to 1950s

According to the World Bank, China’s population was 1.41 billion as of 2023, accounting for 18% of the world’s population. Without the demographic insights developed by Chinese economists, this number could have been substantially higher. While Malthus formulated his population theory in the context of industrial Britain, China experienced rapid demographic expansion prior to modernisation. Lacking industrial development to absorb surplus labour and constrained by a low-productivity agrarian economy, Chinese economists confronted overpopulation as a structural burden. The population was bound by institutions, such as the Confucian norms and various forms of controlled economy, that hindered the transition to more productive sectors. Scholars in the late Qing Dynasty proposed deliberate population control measures, echoing Malthus’s theory of preventive checks. In the twentieth century, a new generation of Chinese economists—trained at leading universities and well-versed in Malthusian thought—formed a Chinese school of population planning. Their research identifies gender equality and universal education as critical levers for addressing demographic pressures. Over time, their recommendations laid the foundation for a state-led population strategy that contributed to a dramatic slowing of China’s population growth. This progress eased resource constraints, raised per capita investment in education and human capital, and created space for broader structural transformation

Economic Thought · Economics · Neoclassical economics · Population · Sociology · Demography · Historical Economic and Social Studies

• Studies on the Population of China, 1368-1953

  P P S Ho, Ping-Ti Ho•Studies on the Population of…•1959

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• China, Europe, and the Great Divergence

  Open Access•Stephen Broadberry, Hanhui Guan et al.•The Journal of Economic History•2018

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• Malthus and China

  Open Access•Alison Bashford•The Historical Journal•2019

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• Wages, prices, and living standards in China, 1738–1925

  Open Access•Robert C Allen, Jean‐pascal Bassino et al.•The Economic History Review•2010

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• Infant and Child Mortality Among the Qing Nobility

  James Lee, Wang Feng et al.•Population Studies•1994

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• John Stuart Mill on China's Stationary State

  Yue Xiao•History of Political Economy•2021

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• Malthusian Models and Chinese Realities

  Open Access•James Lee, Wang Feng et al.•Population and Development Review•1999

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• Revising the Malthusian Narrative

  Open Access•William Lavely, R Bin Wong•The Journal of Asian Studies•1998

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