Forecasting a post-Covid-19 economic crisis using fuzzy cognitive maps
A Spanish tourism-sector perspective
Dados Bibliográficos
| ID | 21699505 |
|---|---|
| Autores | Julio Vena-Oya (0000-0002-8120-6590, Universidad de Jaén, autor correspondente), José Alberto Castañeda García (0000-0003-0805-3628, Universidad de Granada), Miguel Ángel Rodríguez Molina (0000-0002-3841-4706, Universidad de Granada) |
| Ano | 2022 |
| Volume | 25 |
| Fascículo | 13 |
| Páginas | 2048-2062 |
| Data de publicação | 2022-07-03 |
| Peer Reviewed | Sim |
| Open Access | Não |
| Tipo | ARTICLE |
| Periódico | Current Issues in Tourism (JOURNAL) |
| Identificadores do periódico | ISSN: 1368-3500 • E-ISSN: 1747-7603 |
| Editora | Informa UK Limited (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1080/13683500.2021.1944995 |
| OpenAlex | W3177122220 |
| Idioma | EN |
| Citações recebidas | 1 |
| Referências citadas | 42 |
Those in positions of leadership are accustomed to having to deal with complex and uncertain situations. However, the on-going COVID-19 pandemic has taken this challenge to a new level of complexity. Although econometric models are being used to predict economic scenarios relating to the fall-out from the pandemic, these forecasts do not factor-in the uncertainty generated by new changes announced weekly by policymakers. The aim of the present study is therefore to apply a fuzzy approach to develop a method for providing consistent and reliable forecasting scenarios that facilitate managers’ and policymaker’s decision-making in complex and uncertain situations. The chosen context of the study is the case of the potential consequences of COVID-19 for the international tourism sector in Spain, using fuzzy cognitive maps. This semi-quantitative model can help researchers to forecast the potential impact of major events in fuzzy or uncertain environments by constructing flexible and adaptable scenarios
Business · Crisis management · Econometric model · Econometrics · Economics · Fuzzy cognitive map · Fuzzy logic · Fuzzy number · Fuzzy set · Geography · Management · Management science · Operations research · Tourism · Cognitive Science and Mapping · Computer Science · Economic and Technological Innovation · Engineering · Artificial Intelligence
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| Obras citantes distintas | 1 |
|---|---|
| Citações por ano | 0,33 |
| Intervalo de citações | 2023 - 2023 (1) |
| Velocidade de citação | historical |
| Altamente citado | Não |
| Tipos de citação | Neutras: 1 |