The potential health and revenue effects of a tax on sugar sweetened beverages in Zambia

Dados Bibliográficos

ID21880481
AutoresPeter Hangoma (0000-0002-6573-5628, University of Zambia, autor correspondente), Maio Bulawayo (0000-0001-8040-3632, University of Zambia), Mwimba Chewe (0000-0002-8397-6580, University of Zambia), Nicholas Stacey (0000-0002-3572-5314, South African Medical Research Council), Laura Downey (0000-0001-7604-4518, Imperial College London), K Chalkidou (0000-0002-7087-2803, Center for Global Development), Karen Hofman (0000-0001-9512-7220, South African Medical Research Council), Mpuma Kamanga (0000-0002-2332-8629, Ministry of Health), Anita Kaluba (Ministry of Health), Gavin Surgey (0000-0003-1832-3716, South African Medical Research Council)
Ano2020
Volume5
Fascículo4
Páginase001968
Data de publicação2020-04-01
Peer ReviewedSim
Open AccessSim
TipoARTICLE
PeriódicoBMJ Global Health (JOURNAL)
Identificadores do periódicoISSN: 2059-7908 • E-ISSN: 2059-7908
EditoraBMJ (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1136/bmjgh-2019-001968
PMID32354785
OpenAlexW3021072242
IdiomaEN
Citações recebidas6
Referências citadas31

The global burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) has been rising. A key risk factor for NCDs is obesity, which has been partly linked to consumption of sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs). A tax on SSBs is an attractive control measure to curb the rising trend in NCDs, as it has the potential to reduce consumption of SSBs. However, studies on the potential effects of SSB taxes have been concentrated in high-income countries with limited studies in low-income and middle-income countries. Using data from the 2015 Zambia Living Conditions Monitoring Survey (LCMS) data, the 2017 Zambia NCD STEPS Survey, and key parameters from the literature, we simulated the effect of a 25% SSB tax in Zambia on energy intake and the corresponding change in body mass index (BMI), obesity prevalence, deaths averted, life years gained and revenues generated using a mathematical model developed using Microsoft Excel. We conducted Monte Carlo simulations to construct 95% confidence bands and sensitivity analyses to account for uncertainties in key parameters. We found that a 25% SSB would avert 2526 deaths, though these results were not statistically significant overall. However, when broken down by gender, the tax was found to significantly avert 1133 deaths in women (95% CI 353 to 1970). The tax was found to potentially generate an additional US$5.46 million (95% CI 4.66 to 6.14) in revenue annually. We conclude that an SSB tax in Zambia has the potential to significantly decrease the amount of disability-adjusted life years lost to lifestyle-related diseases in women, highlighting important health equity outcomes. Women have higher baseline BMI and therefore are at higher risk for NCDs. In addition, an SSB tax will provide government with additional revenue which if earmarked for health could contribute to healthcare financing in Zambia

Body mass index · Business · Economics · Environmental health · Obesity · Public economics · Revenue · Tax revenue · Demography · Global Public Health Policies and Epidemiology · Health disparities and outcomes · Medicine · Obesity, Physical Activity, Diet · Finance