Implications of climate change impacts for the Brazilian electricity mix

Hydropower generation is responsible for supplying most of the electricity in Brazil. Like other renewable sources, water is highly sensitive to meteorological variables, so that climate change may have a considerable impact on it. Therefore, this study aims at assessing climate change impacts on hydropower generation and their consequences for the Brazilian electricity system. Scenario data for specific average global warming levels of 2°C and 4°C from Eta_HadGEM2-ES and Eta_MIROC5 downscaled climate models are used. Outcomes indicate that the electricity system’s adaptive capacity to lower hydropower generation includes a growing share of other renewable and natural gas fired thermoelectric generation, increasing the system’s marginal cost to meet projected demand in 2030. Greenhouse gas emissions are projected to increase in a 2°C scenario, but to decrease in scenarios in which warming reaches 4°C

Climate change · Economics · Electricity · Electricity generation · Electricity system · Global warming · Greenhouse gas · Hydropower · Natural resource economics · Renewable energy · Engineering · Environmental Science · Integrated Energy Systems Optimization · Water resources management and optimization · Water-Energy-Food Nexus Studies · Ecology

• The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment

  Open Access•Richard H Moss, Jae Edmonds et al.•Nature•2010

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• Impacts of climate change and deforestation on hydropower planning in the Brazilian Amazon

  Open Access•Mauricio E Arias, Fabio Farinosi et al.•Nature Sustainability•2020

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