Projections of Brazilian biomes resilience and socio-environmental risks to climate change

Climate change has been considered, at a global level, as one of the main anthropogenic drivers of environmental transformation, especially on biomes, ecosystems and the most vulnerable population. In this regard, the concept of resilience has been widely used in ecology to explain the ecosystem transition thresholds by which forests and other habitats are able to restructure in the face of various external disturbances. However, the concept of resilience in facing climate change impacts and risks through the lens of socio-environmental risks in Brazil is still underdeveloped, especially at the biome level. This article uses the theory of critical transitions to ecological niche distribution modeling in future global warming scenarios by the end of the century, in order to highlight the change in ecological resilience of the Amazon, Caatinga, Cerrado, Atlantic Forest and Pampa biomes, and how the changes in resilience can lead to an increased exposure, vulnerabilities and risks to socio-environmental security. This article shows how an interdisciplinary approach bringing together modeling of biome resilience may be a tool to support decision making and public policies on mitigation and adaptation to climate change and reduce risks to socio-environmental security

Biome · Climate change · Ecological resilience · Ecosystem · Environmental change · Environmental resource management · Geography · Population · Psychological resilience · Sociology · Ecosystem dynamics and resilience · Environmental Science · Land Use and Ecosystem Services · Zoonotic diseases and public health · Ecology

• Early-warning signals for critical transitions

  Open Access•Marten Scheffer, Jordi Bascompte et al.•Nature•2009

  Incluir item

• Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system

  Open Access•Timothy M Lenton, Hermann Held et al.•Proceedings of the National…•2008

  Incluir item

• Regime Shifts, Resilience, and Biodiversity in Ecosystem Management

  Carl Folke, Steve Carpenter et al.•Annual Review of Ecology,…•2004

  Incluir item

• Social and economic impacts of climate

  Open Access•Tamma Carleton, Solomon Hsiang et al.•Science•2016

  Incluir item

• Moment of truth for the Cerrado hotspot

  Open Access•Bernardo B N Strassburg, Thomas M Brooks et al.•Nature Ecology & Evolution•2017

  Incluir item

• Global Resilience of Tropical Forest and Savanna to Critical Transitions

  Open Access•Marina Hirota, Milena Holmgren et al.•Science•2011

  Incluir item

• Ecological Resilience—In Theory and Application

  Lance Gunderson, Lance H Gunderson•Annual Review of Ecology and…•2000

  Incluir item

• Anticipating Critical Transitions

  Open Access•Marten Scheffer, R Carpenter et al.•Science•2012

  Incluir item

• Terrestrial Ecoregions of the World

  David M Olson, E Dinerstein et al.•BioScience•2001

  Incluir item

• Assessing the accuracy of species distribution models

  Open Access•OMRI ALLOUCHE, ASAF TSOAR et al.•Journal of Applied Ecology•2006

  Incluir item

• Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems

  Open Access•Marten Scheffer, R Carpenter et al.•Nature•2001

  Incluir item

• Understanding the value and limits of nature-based solutions to climate change and other global challenges

  Open Access•Nathalie Seddon, Alexandre M Chausson et al.•Philosophical Transactions of the…•2020

  Incluir item

• Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production

  Open Access•Meghan Burke, Marshall Burke et al.•Nature•2015

  Incluir item

• Biodiversity hotspots for conservation priorities

  Open Access•Norman Myers, Russell A Mittermeier et al.•Nature•2000

  Incluir item

• Emergent Risks and Key Vulnerabilities

  Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change, Christopher B Field et al.•Climate Change 2014 - Impacts,…•2015

  Incluir item

• Social and health dimensions of climate change in the Amazon

  Open Access•E S Brondizio, Ana Carolina Barbosa De Lima et al.•Annals of Human Biology•2016

  Incluir item

• A linked vulnerability and resilience framework for adaptation pathways in remote disadvantaged communities

  Open Access•Yiheyis Maru, Yiheyis Taddele Maru et al.•Global Environmental Change•2014

  Incluir item