Comparative analysis and evolution of civilian versus combatant mortality ratios in Israel-Gaza conflicts, 2008–2023
Dados Bibliográficos
| ID | 22082048 |
|---|---|
| Autores | Houssein H Ayoub (0000-0003-2512-6657, Qatar University), HIAM CHEMAITELLY (0000-0002-8756-6968, Cornell University), Laith J Abu‐raddad (0000-0003-0790-0506, Cornell University, autor correspondente) |
| Ano | 2024 |
| Volume | 12 |
| Páginas | 1359189-1359189 |
| Data de publicação | 2024-06-25 |
| Peer Reviewed | Sim |
| Open Access | Sim |
| Tipo | ARTICLE |
| Periódico | Frontiers in Public Health (JOURNAL) |
| Identificadores do periódico | ISSN: 2296-2565 • E-ISSN: 2296-2565 |
| Editora | Frontiers Media SA (PUBLISHER • CH) |
| DOI | 10.3389/fpubh.2024.1359189 |
| PMID | 38983259 |
| OpenAlex | W4400015113 |
| Idioma | EN |
| Citações recebidas | 4 |
| Referências citadas | 12 |
Background: There is a need for statistical methodologies that scrutinize civilian casualties in conflicts, evaluating the degree to which the conduct of war affects civilians and breaches the laws of war. Employing an epidemiological method, this study introduced, developed, and applied a novel approach for investigating mortality of civilians versus combatants in conflicts. Methods: A deterministic mathematical model, structured by age and sex, was developed to describe the process of conflict-related deaths among both combatants and civilians. The model was calibrated using demographic and conflict-related data from different Israel-Gaza conflicts. To quantify the extent of the impact on civilians and determine whether they are the primary focus of a conflict, a statistical metric, the index of killing civilians, along with associated criteria, was devised. Results: The model-estimated proportion of deaths in Gaza categorized as combatants was 62.1% (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 57.6-66.2%), 51.1% (95% UI: 47.1-54.9%), and 12.7% (95% UI: 9.7-15.4%) in the 2008-2009, 2014, and 2023 Israel-Gaza conflicts, respectively. The index of killing civilians was 0.61 (95% UI: 0.51-0.74), 0.96 (95% UI: 0.82-1.12), and 7.01 (95% UI: 5.50-9.29) in the 2008-2009, 2014, and 2023 conflicts, respectively. These index values indicate strong evidence for civilians being an object of war in the 2008-2009 and 2014 conflicts, but combatants were still identified as the primary focus of the conflict. In the 2023 conflict, there is robust evidence for civilians being an object of war, with civilians identified as the primary focus of the conflict. Conclusion: Findings imply a progressive shift in Israel's rules of engagement over time, with a trend towards higher acceptance of casualties among civilians. The 2023 conflict stands apart from preceding Israel-Gaza conflicts, with civilians identified as the primary focus of the conflict
Armed conflict · Combatant · Criminology · Political science · Sociology · Demography · Health and Conflict Studies · Law · Medicine · Migration, Health and Trauma · Psychology · Trauma, Hemostasis, Coagulopathy, Resuscitation
| Obras citantes distintas | 4 |
|---|---|
| Citações por ano | 4 |
| Intervalo de citações | 2025 - 2026 (2) |
| Velocidade de citação | current |
| Altamente citado | Não |
| Tipos de citação | Neutras: 3 |