Survival spending

How climate shocks and conflict shape household consumption in Somalia

Dados Bibliográficos

ID22355441
AutoresAbdikadir Ahmed Mohamed (0009-0004-7589-8502, Jamhuriya University of Science and Technology, autor correspondente), Abdi Majid Yusuf Ibey (0009-0000-1524-7231, Jamhuriya University of Science and Technology), Abdikani Salah Abdulle (0009-0009-1098-3999, Jamhuriya University of Science and Technology), Liban Bile Mohamud (0009-0000-7876-4762, Somali National University)
Ano2025
Volume19
Páginas100351
Data de publicação2025-12-01
Peer ReviewedSim
Open AccessSim
TipoARTICLE
PeriódicoCleaner and Responsible Consumption (JOURNAL)
Identificadores do periódicoISSN: 2666-7843
EditoraElsevier BV (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1016/j.clrc.2025.100351
OpenAlexW4415973940
IdiomaEN
Referências citadas57

Private consumption remains a central yet underexplored outcome in the intersection of climate change, conflict, and macroeconomic dynamics especially in contexts marked by persistent volatility. Somalia presents a compelling case, where prolonged exposure to climate shocks, economic instability, and political conflict deeply influence household behavior. This study investigates the effect of temperature, drought (captured via the Standardized Precipitation Index), CO 2 emissions, inflation, conflict, and GDP per capita on private consumption in Somalia over 1970–2023. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and Granger causality analysis, the research uncovers nuanced dynamics between explanatory variables and consumption. Cointegration is confirmed (bounds F = 4.81), with a stable adjustment back to equilibrium (ECM = –0.066), implying ∼6.6% correction per year. Results show that temperature and CO 2 emissions are positively associated with consumption in the long run (≈ +7.41 and +1.81, respectively), while inflation erodes it (≈ –0.75). Drought exerts a short-run negative effect (≈ –0.06) but turns positive over time (≈ +1.12), reflecting forced adjustments such as asset sales, displacement, and aid dependency. Conflict, too, exhibits a counterintuitive long-run positive association (≈ +1.34), driven not by welfare gains but by shifts in spending patterns, remittance inflows, and humanitarian support. By integrating climatic, socio-political, and economic variables in a long-horizon empirical framework, this study provides novel insights into the complex and often paradoxical ways stressors shape household-level consumption. The findings inform targeted policies that reflect local realities while supporting economic resilience in highly exposed contexts like Somalia

Climate change · Cointegration · Distributed lag · Granger causality · Private consumption · Psychological resilience · Remittance · Agricultural risk and resilience · Climate Change and Health Impacts · Energy, Environment, Economic Growth