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Estimating run choice models with innovative data collection

Day-to-day tickets evolution in High Speed Rail

Dados Bibliográficos

ID22418941
AutoresFrancesco Russo (0000-0002-3344-4893, University of Reggio Calabria), Giuseppe Musolino (0000-0001-5258-7331, University of Reggio Calabria, autor correspondente), Domenico Sgro (0009-0000-2102-8131, University of Reggio Calabria)
Ano2026
Volume176
Páginas103909
Data de publicação2026-02-01
Peer ReviewedSim
Open AccessSim
TipoARTICLE
PeriódicoTransport Policy (JOURNAL)
Identificadores do periódicoISSN: 0967-070X • E-ISSN: 1879-310X
EditoraElsevier BV (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103909
OpenAlexW4416414058
IdiomaEN
Referências citadas19

There are more than 110,000 km of planned and operative High-Speed Rail (HSR) lines in the world. A fundamental problem is to estimate the travel demand that uses HSR services. The paper considers models simulating the run choice of users among existing alternatives travelling between a given origin-destination pair. The research contribution concerns the proposal of a method for the identification of users from the observation of day-to-day tickets evolution. Ticket evolution constitutes a big and innovative dataset for national transportation system open to competition. The method is composed by two main parts. The former deals with the building of the choice set of alternatives, analysing the series of services tickets, and ends with the identification of user's choices. The latter phase deals with the specification and calibration of a run choice model. The proposed method has been tested on the relationship Rome-Milan (Italy), through the calibration of a disaggregated run choice model belonging to the class of random utility models. The obtained results can be important because give the possibility to update the model parameters from data obtained observing the ticket evolutions. • Innovative method for collecting data concerning the evolution of fares of High Speed Rail (HSR) services. • Framework for the identification of users' choice of a HSR run and development of choice model in the dimension of run. • Experimentation in a real test site of HSR lines operating along the Rome-Milan pair (Italy). • Identification of users' choices without the execution of expensive surveys in terms of time and monetary cost. • Big data to support the specification-calibration-validation of choice models in the dimension of run.

Calibration · Choice set · Discrete choice · Ticket · Aviation Industry Analysis and Trends · Railway Systems and Energy Efficiency · Transportation Planning and Optimization

  • The structure of random utility models

    Open Access•Charles F Manski•Theory and Decision•1977

  • Snowball Sampling

    Open Access•Leo A Goodman•The Annals of Mathematical…•1961

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