More on the Cohort-Component Model of Population Projection in the Context of HIV/Aids

This article presents an extension of the cohort-component model of population projection (CCMPP) first formulated by Heuveline (2003) that is capable of modeling a population affected by HIV. Heuveline proposes a maximum likelihood approach to estimate the age profile of HIV incidence that produced the HIV epidemics in East Africa during the 1990s. We extend this work by developing the Leslie matrix representation of the CCMPP, which greatly facilitates the implementation of the model for parameter estimation and projection. The Leslie matrix also contains information about the stable tendencies of the corresponding population, such as the stable age distribution and time to stability. Another contribution of this work is that we update the sources of data used to estimate the parameters, and use these data to estimate a modified version of the CCMPP that includes (estimated) parameters governing the survival experience of the infected population. A further application of the model to a small population with high HIV prevalence in rural South Africa is presented as an additional demonstration. This work lays the foundation for development of more robust and flexible Bayesian estimation methods that will greatly enhance the utility of this and similar models

Algorithm · Cohort · Econometrics · Geography · Physics · Political science · Population · Population projection · Research methodology · Sociology · Statistics · Adolescent Sexual and Reproductive Health · Demography · HIV, Drug Use, Sexual Risk · HIV/AIDS Research and Interventions · Mathematics · Medicine · Virology

• The Influence of Migration Patterns on Regional Demographic Development in Germany

  Open Access•Jette Ernst, Sebastian Dräger et al.•Social Sciences•2023

  Incluir item

• Estimates of Age-Specific Reductions in HIV Prevalence in Uganda

  Open Access•Samuel J Clark, Jason R Thomas et al.•Demographic Research•2012

  Incluir item

• The Association Between Hiv and Fertility in a Cohort Study in Rural Tanzania

  Open Access•SUSAN-CATHERINE HUNTER, Raphael Isingo et al.•Journal of Biosocial Science•2003

  Incluir item

• Research into health, population and social transitions in rural South Africa

  Open Access•Kathleen Kahn, Stephen M Tollman et al.•Scandinavian Journal of Public…•2007

  Incluir item

• On the Rate of Growth of the Population of the United States since 1790 and Its Mathematical Representation

  Open Access•Raymond Pearl, Lowell J Reed•Proceedings of the National…•1920

  Incluir item

• Mortality of infected and uninfected infants born to HIV-infected mothers in Africa

  Open Access•Marie-Louise Newell, Hoosen Coovadia et al.•The Lancet•2004

  Incluir item

• On the Use of Matrices in Certain Population Mathematics

  Paula Leslie, P H LESLIE•Biometrika•1945

  Incluir item

• Prevention of Mother-to-Child HIV Transmission in Resource-Poor Countries

  Kevin M De Cock, Mary Glenn Fowler et al.•JAMA•2000

  Incluir item

• Intrapartum and neonatal single-dose nevirapine compared with zidovudine for prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV-1 in Kampala, Uganda

  Open Access•Laura Guay, Laura A Guay et al.•The Lancet•1999

  Incluir item

• Health transition review

  Open Access•Carlos Ε A Coimbra, Carlos E A Coimbra Jr•Cadernos de Saude Publica•1992

  Incluir item

• Bayesian Model Selection in Social Research

  Adrian E Raftery•Sociological Methodology•1995

  Incluir item

• Adult mortality in sub-Saharan Africa

  Open Access•Ian M Timaeus, Momodou Jasseh•Demography•2004

  Incluir item

• Aids mortality and the mobility of children in Kwazulu Natal, South Africa

  Open Access•Kathleen Ford, Victoria Hosegood•Demography•2005

  Incluir item

• Stability over time in the distribution of population forecast errors

  Open Access•Stanley K Smith, Terry Sincich•Demography•1988

  Incluir item

• HIV and population dynamics

  Open Access•Patrick Heuveline•Demography•2003

  Incluir item

• Aids and the elderly of thailand

  Open Access•Kenneth W Wachter, John E Knodel et al.•Demography•2002

  Incluir item

• The Probability of a Cessation of the Growth of Population in England and Wales During the Next Century

  Edwin Cannan•The Economic Journal•1895

  Incluir item

• Births and Population in Great Britain

  A L Bowley•The Economic Journal•1924

  Incluir item

• Applied Mathematical Demography (Statistics for Biology and Health)

  Open Access•Nathan Keyfitz, Hal Caswell•Applied Mathematical Demography…•2005

  Incluir item

• The contribution of HIV to fertility decline in rural Zimbabwe, 1985-2000

  Nicola Terceira, Sarah Gregson et al.•Population Studies•2003

  Incluir item

• Inconsistencies in age profiles of HIV prevalence

  Open Access•Pauline M Leclerc, P Leclerc et al.•Demographic Research•2007

  Incluir item