Peace on quicksand? Challenging the conventional wisdom about economic growth and post-conflict risks

Dados Bibliográficos

ID3918360
AutoresMarianne Dahl (0000-0002-0560-3850, Peace Research Institute Oslo), Bjørn Høyland (0000-0002-7406-9348, University of Oslo & Centre for the Study of Civil War, PRIO, autor correspondente)
Ano2012
Volume49
Fascículo3
Páginas423-429
Data de publicação2012-05-01
Peer ReviewedSim
Open AccessSim
TipoARTICLE
PeriódicoJournal of Peace Research (JOURNAL)
Identificadores do periódicoISSN: 0022-3433 • E-ISSN: 1460-3578
EditoraSAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1177/0022343312436767
OpenAlexW2021858755
IdiomaEN
Citações recebidas6
Referências citadas12

In a widely cited study, Collier, Hoeffler & Söderbom show that economic growth reduces the risk of post-conflict peace collapse - particularly when the UN is present with a peace mission. These findings are encouraging for interventionist international policymakers. We replicate their study using data from the UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict Database instead of the Correlates of War database. We generate a series of different datasets on the basis of different coding criteria commonly used in the literature, and rerun a simplified version of their model. Our results do not support their findings regarding the risk-reducing effect of economic growth and UN involvement. At best, the results are mixed. Some of the models even suggest that economic growth may increase the risk of post-conflict peace collapse. Overall, we are forced to conclude that the impacts of economic growth and UN involvement on the risk of post-conflict peace collapse are neither clear nor simple. The differences in the results seem to be driven by two sources: the conflicts included in the original datasets and the coding of the start and end dates of the conflicts

Armed conflict · Coding (social sciences) · Development economics · Economics · Political science · Replicate · Social science · Sociology · Health and Conflict Studies · International Development and Aid · Law · Mathematics · Politics and Conflicts in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Middle East · Psychology