Analysis without Theory

This article shows that Friedman's experiences with the research conducted at the Statistical Research Group (SRG) significantly shaped his 1953 methodology. These experiences gave him the ideas for a methodology for statistical analysis when dealing with "lousy data," that is, when the conditions under which they are generated are not clear, when the data are "uncontrolled experiences." Two views emerged from his SRG work. One is his view on theoretical assumptions: they only specify and do not determine under which conditions a model or device is expected to work. The other is his view on testing: the working of a device should be tested in comparison with a standard. Assessing the performance of a model with a benchmark model makes irrelevant the uncontrollable, only partly known, complex mass of circumstances under which both models perform. So both views were two sides of the same coin

Classical economics · Econometrics · Economics · Group (periodic table · Keynesian economics · Mathematical economics · Neoclassical economics · Positive economics · Sociology · Economic Theory and Institutions · Psychology

• The History of Econometric Ideas

  Open Access•Michael S Morgan, Mary S Morgan•History of Econometric Ideas•1990

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• The Probability Approach in Econometrics

  Trygve Haavelmo•Econometrica•1944

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• Essays in Positive Economics

  Clark Lee Allen, Milton Friedman•Southern Economic Journal•1954

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• The Utility Analysis of Choices Involving Risk

  Milton Friedman, Leonard J Savage•Journal of Political Economy•1948

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• Milton Friedman, the Statistical Methodologist

  David Teira•History of Political Economy•2007

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• Economics for a Client

  Judy L Klein•History of Political Economy•2000

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