Climate Change and Stability of Urban Infrastructure in Russian Permafrost Regions
Prognostic Assessment based on GCM Climate Projections
Dados Bibliográficos
| ID | 4491085 |
|---|---|
| Autores | Nikolay I Shiklomanov (0000-0002-8609-0240, The George Washington University, Department of Geography, Washington, DC, USA), D A Streletskiy (0000-0003-2563-2664, State Hydrological Institute), Timothy B Swales (Earth Cryosphere Institute SB RAS, Tyumen, Russia), Vasily A Kokorev (Tyumen State Oil and Gas University, Tyumen, Russia), V Kokorev (0000-0001-7628-3674, University of Tyumen) |
| Ano | 2017 |
| Volume | 107 |
| Fascículo | 1 |
| Páginas | 125-142 |
| Data de publicação | 2017-01-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Sim |
| Open Access | Sim |
| Tipo | ARTICLE |
| Periódico | Geographical Review (JOURNAL) |
| Identificadores do periódico | ISSN: 0016-7428 • E-ISSN: 1931-0846 |
| Editora | Informa UK Limited (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1111/gere.12214 |
| OpenAlex | W2528582529 |
| Idioma | EN |
| Citações recebidas | 21 |
| Referências citadas | 26 |
One of the most significant climate change impacts on arctic urban landscapes is the warming and degradation of permafrost, which negatively affects the structural integrity of infrastructure. We estimate potential changes in stability of Russian urban infrastructure built on permafrost in response to the projected climatic changes provided by six preselected General Circulation Models (GCMs) participated in the most recent Climate Model Inter‐comparison Project (CMIP5). The analysis was conducted for the entire extent of the Russian permafrost‐affected area. According to our analysis a significant (at least 25%) climate‐induced reduction in the urban infrastructure stability throughout the Russian permafrost region should be expected by the mid‐21st century. However, the high uncertainty, resulting from the GCM‐produced climate projections, prohibits definitive conclusion about the rate and magnitude of potential climate impacts on permafrost infrastructure. Results presented in this paper can serve as guidelines for developing adequate adaptation and mitigation strategy for Russian northern cities
Climate change · Climatology · GCM transcription factors · General Circulation Model · Geography · Permafrost · Physical geography · Stability (learning theory · Climate change and permafrost · Climate variability and models · Computer Science · Cryospheric studies and observations · Environmental Science · Geology
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Population living on permafrost in the Arctic
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The three waves of Arctic urbanisation. Drivers, evolutions, prospects
The End of Permafrost
Urban Geocryology
RCP 8.5—A scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions
Ongoing climatic change in Northern Eurasia
Dangerous climate change and the importance of adaptation for the Arctic’s Inuit population
Changes in the 1963–2013 shallow ground thermal regime in Russian permafrost regions
Spatial variability of permafrost active-layer thickness under contemporary and projected climate in Northern Alaska
Estimating future costs for Alaska public infrastructure at risk from climate change
| Obras citantes distintas | 21 |
|---|---|
| Citações por ano | 2,33 |
| Intervalo de citações | 2017 - 2025 (9) |
| Velocidade de citação | recent |
| Altamente citado | Não |
| Tipos de citação | Neutras: 21 |