Area level deprivation and monthly Covid-19 cases

The impact of government policy in England

Dados Bibliográficos

ID4602136
AutoresKaryn Morrissey (0000-0001-7259-1047, Technical University of Denmark, autor correspondente), Frank Spooner (0000-0001-6640-8621, University of Exeter), John Salter (0000-0002-7428-6465, University of Exeter), Gavin Shaddick (0000-0002-4117-4264, The Alan Turing Institute)
Ano2021
Volume289
Páginas114413
Data de publicação2021-11-01
Peer ReviewedSim
Open AccessSim
TipoARTICLE
PeriódicoSocial Science & Medicine (JOURNAL)
Identificadores do periódicoISSN: 0277-9536 • E-ISSN: 1873-5347
EditoraElsevier BV (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1016/j.socscimed.2021.114413
PMID34563867
OpenAlexW3204288993
IdiomaEN
Citações recebidas10
Referências citadas19

This paper aims to understand the relationship between area level deprivation and monthly COVID-19 cases in England in response to government policy throughout 2020. The response variable is monthly reported COVID-19 cases at the Middle Super Output Area (MSOA) level by Public Health England, with Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD), ethnicity (percentage of the population across 5 ethnicity categories) and the percentage of the population older than 70 years old and time as predictors. A GEE population-averaged panel-data model was employed to model trends in monthly COVID-19 cases with the population of each MSOA included as the exposure variable. Area level deprivation is significantly associated with COVID-19 cases from March 2020; however, this relationship is reversed in December 2020. Follow up analysis found that this reversal was maintained when controlling for the novel COVID-19 variant outbreak in the South East of England. This analysis indicates that changes in the role of deprivation and monthly reported COVID-19 over time cases may be linked to two government policies: (1) the premature easing of national restrictions in July 2020 when cases were still high in the most deprived areas in England and (2) the introduction of a regional tiered system in October predominantly in the North of England. The analysis adds to the evidence showing that deprivation is a key driver of COVID-19 outcomes and highlights the unintended negative impact of government policy

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19 · Demographic economics · Disease · Economic growth · Economics · Ethnic group · Gee · Generalized estimating equation · Geography · Government (linguistics · Outbreak · Political science · Population · Public health · Social deprivation · Socioeconomics · Sociology · Statistics · COVID-19 epidemiological studies · Demography · Employment and Welfare Studies · Health disparities and outcomes · Medicine