American political affiliation, 2003-43

The recent rise in identification with American political parties has focused interest on the long-term dynamics of party support. Liberal commentators cite immigration and youth as forces that will produce a natural advantage for the Democrats in the future, while conservative writers highlight the importance of high fertility amongst Republicans in securing growth. These opinions are not based on demographic analysis. We addressed this omission by undertaking the first ever cohort component projection (up to 2043) of populations by American party allegiance, based on survey and census data. On current trends, we predict that American partisanship will change much less than the nation's ethnic composition because the parties are similar in age structure. Nevertheless, our projections suggest that the Democrats will gain 2-3 per cent more support than the Republicans by 2043, mainly through immigration, although the higher fertility of Republicans may eventually offset that advantage

Memory, violence, and history · Philosophy

• Creating a racially polarized electorate

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• Generations and Politics

  M Kent Jennings, Richard G Niemi•Generations and Politics•1981

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• Myth of the Independent Voter

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• Political Demography, Demographic Engineering

  Michael Weiner, Myron Weiner et al.•Political Demography, Demographic…•2001

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• The rank-order consistency of personality traits from childhood to old age

  Brent W Roberts, Wendy F DelVecchio•Psychological Bulletin•2000

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• The Northern Ireland Conflict

  John Mcgarry, Brian O’leary et al.•The Northern Ireland conflict•2004

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• Value Orientations and the Second Demographic Transition (SDT) in Northern, Western and Southern Europe

  Open Access•Johan Surkyn, Ron Lesthaeghe•Demographic Research•2004

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• Ideological Realignment in the U.S. Electorate

  Alan I Abramowitz, Kyle L Saunders•The Journal of Politics•1998

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• Unrealized Partisans, Realized Independents, and the Intergenerational Transmission of Partisan Identification

  Franco Mattei, Richard G Niemi•The Journal of Politics•1991

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• The Foundations of Latino Voter Partisanship

  R Michael Alvarez, Lisa Garcia Bedolla•The Journal of Politics•2003

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• Mothers Versus Fathers

  M Kent Jenning, M Kent Jennings et al.•The Journal of Politics•1969

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• Family Traditions, Political Periods, and the Development of Partisan Orientations

  Paul A Beck, M Kent Jenning et al.•The Journal of Politics•1991

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• Macropartisanship in California

  John L Korey•Public Opinion Quarterly•2006

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• Changing Sides or Changing Minds? Party Identification and Policy Preferences in the American Electorate

  Open Access•Thomas M Carsey, Geoffrey C Layman•American Journal of Political…•2006

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• Generations and Collective Memories

  Howard Schuman, Jacqueline Scott•American Sociological Review•1989

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• The Second Demographic Transition in the United States

  Open Access•Ron J Lesthaeghe, Ron Lesthaeghe et al.•Population and Development Review•2006

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• Intermarriage and the risk of divorce in the Netherlands

  M Kalmijn, Paul M De Graaf et al.•Population Studies•2005

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• Data quality and accuracy of United Nations population projections, 1950-95

  Nico Keilman•Population Studies•2001

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• Macropartisanship

  Open Access•Donald P Green, Donald Green et al.•American Political Science Review•1998

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• Tracking the Restructuring of American Religion

  D E Sherkat•Social Forces•2001

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• Gender Ideology, Marital Disruption, and the Employment of Married Women

  Theodore N Greenstein•Journal of Marriage and the Family•1995

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• Religious Practice

  L R Iannaccone•Journal for the Scientific Study…•1990

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• Secularism, Fundamentalism, or Catholicism? The Religious Composition of the United States to 2043

  Open Access•Vegard Skirbekk, Eric Kaufmann et al.•Journal for the Scientific Study…•2010

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• The Demographic Imperative in Religious Change in the United States

  M Hout, Andrew Greeley et al.•American Journal of Sociology•2001

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• Aging, Cohorts, and the Stability of Sociopolitical Orientations Over the Life Span

  Duane F Alwin, Jon A Krosnick•American Journal of Sociology•1991

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