Projections of Future Extreme Weather Losses Under Changes in Climate and Exposure
Dados Bibliográficos
| ID | 5816895 |
|---|---|
| Autores | Laurens M Bouwer (0000-0003-3498-2586, Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam The Netherlands, autor correspondente) |
| Ano | 2012 |
| Volume | 33 |
| Fascículo | 5 |
| Páginas | 915-930 |
| Data de publicação | 2012-09-07 |
| Peer Reviewed | Sim |
| Open Access | Sim |
| Tipo | ARTICLE |
| Periódico | Risk Analysis (JOURNAL) |
| Identificadores do periódico | ISSN: 0272-4332 • E-ISSN: 1539-6924 |
| Editora | Wiley (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01880.x |
| PMID | 22958147 |
| OpenAlex | W2113917110 |
| Idioma | EN |
| Citações recebidas | 22 |
| Referências citadas | 61 |
Many attempts are made to assess future changes in extreme weather events due to anthropogenic climate change, but few studies have estimated the potential change in economic losses from such events. Projecting losses is more complex as it requires insight into the change in the weather hazard but also into exposure and vulnerability of assets. This article discusses the issues involved as well as a framework for projecting future losses, and provides an overview of some state-of-the-art projections. Estimates of changes in losses from cyclones and floods are given, and particular attention is paid to the different approaches and assumptions. All projections show increases in extreme weather losses due to climate change. Flood losses are generally projected to increase more rapidly than losses from tropical and extra-tropical cyclones. However, for the period until the year 2040, the contribution from increasing exposure and value of capital at risk to future losses is likely to be equal or larger than the contribution from anthropogenic climate change. Given the fact that the occurrence of loss events also varies over time due to natural climate variability, the signal from anthropogenic climate change is likely to be lost among the other causes for changes in risk, at least during the period until 2040. More efforts are needed to arrive at a comprehensive approach that includes quantification of changes in hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, as well as adaptation effects
Extreme weather · Natural hazard · Vulnerability · Agricultural risk and resilience · Flood Risk Assessment and Management · Hydrology and Drought Analysis
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Future risk of flooding
Mistreatment of the economic impacts of extreme events in the Stern Review Report on the Economics of Climate Change
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Changes in future flood risk due to climate and development in a Dutch polder area
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| Obras citantes distintas | 22 |
|---|---|
| Citações por ano | 1,69 |
| Intervalo de citações | 2013 - 2026 (14) |
| Velocidade de citação | current |
| Altamente citado | Não |
| Tipos de citação | Neutras: 22 |