On prediction in political science

Dados Bibliográficos

ID6258014
AutoresKeith Dowding (0000-0001-6888-9369, Australian National University Australia, autor correspondente), Charles Miller (0000-0001-6484-8906, Australian National University Australia)
Ano2019
Volume58
Fascículo3
Páginas1001-1018
Data de publicação2019-08-01
Peer ReviewedSim
Open AccessSim
TipoARTICLE
PeriódicoEuropean Journal of Political Research (JOURNAL)
Identificadores do periódicoISSN: 0304-4130 • E-ISSN: 1475-6765
EditoraWiley (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1111/1475-6765.12319
OpenAlexW2911404504
IdiomaEN
Citações recebidas17
Referências citadas41

This article discusses recent moves in political science that emphasise predicting future events rather than theoretically explaining past ones or understanding empirical generalisations. Two types of prediction are defined: pragmatic, and scientific. The main aim of political science is explanation, which requires scientific prediction. Scientific prediction does not necessarily entail pragmatic prediction nor does it necessarily refer to the future, though both are desiderata for political science. Pragmatic prediction is not necessarily explanatory, and emphasising pragmatic prediction will lead to disappointment, as it will not always help in understanding how to intervene to change future outcomes, and policy makers are likely to be disappointed by its time‐scale

Disappointment · Economics · Epistemology · Political science · Politics · Positive economics · Scale (ratio · Sociology · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Law · Philosophy · Political Science Research and Education · Psychology · Qualitative Comparative Analysis Research · Social Psychology