Us and Them

Foreign Threat and Domestic Polarization

Dados Bibliográficos

ID6283373
AutoresJoshua A Schwartz (0000-0001-9283-5846, Carnegie Mellon Institute for Strategy and Technology, Pittsburgh, PA, USA, autor correspondente), Dominic Tierney (0000-0003-2090-5918, Swarthmore College, Swarthmore, PA, USA)
Ano2025
Volume69
Fascículo2-3
Páginas352-380
Data de publicação2025-03-01
Peer ReviewedSim
Open AccessSim
TipoARTICLE
PeriódicoJournal of Conflict Resolution (JOURNAL)
Identificadores do periódicoISSN: 0022-0027 • E-ISSN: 1552-8766
EditoraSAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1177/00220027241246539
OpenAlexW4395467669
IdiomaEN
Citações recebidas5
Referências citadas66

Can foreign threats reduce domestic polarization, and if so, under what conditions? This is an important question for the United States given the severity of internal division and the emergence of China as a potentially unifying external peril. We offer a novel theoretical argument about when external danger will rally Americans based on the nexus between the vividness of foreign danger and bipartisan elite agreement about the threat. We test our theory through a series of pre-registered survey experiments. We find that vivid foreign threats, in isolation, do not reduce domestic polarization and therefore the danger from China alone may not be sufficient to spur domestic unity. However, vivid foreign threats in combination with policymaker agreement about the threat does significantly reduce domestic polarization. This reduction in polarization comes at a cost: increased public willingness to violate use of force norms against China. Overall, our study establishes that foreign peril can reduce domestic polarization under certain circumstances, and demonstrates that elite reactions to foreign threats are highly important in shaping wider domestic effects

Argument (complex analysis · China · Development economics · Economics · Elite · Foreign policy · International trade · Polarization (electrochemistry · Political economy · Political science · Politics · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · International Relations and Foreign Policy · Law · Medicine · Political Conflict and Governance