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External Interventions and Negotiated Settlements in Civil Conflicts

Dados Bibliográficos

ID6283430
AutoresHeather Elko Mckibben (0000-0002-3241-3112, University of California, Davis, CA, USA, autor correspondente), Amy Skoll (0000-0002-1992-8170, University of California, Davis, CA, USA)
Ano2021
Volume65
Fascículo2-3
Páginas480-505
Data de publicação2021-02-01
Peer ReviewedSim
Open AccessSim
TipoARTICLE
PeriódicoJournal of Conflict Resolution (JOURNAL)
Identificadores do periódicoISSN: 0022-0027 • E-ISSN: 1552-8766
EditoraSAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1177/0022002720950417
OpenAlexW3053657038
IdiomaEN
Citações recebidas7
Referências citadas40

How do different types of external intervention affect the likelihood of a negotiated settlement in civil conflicts? Drawing on the negotiation literature, which shows that the nature of the parties’ “best alternative to a negotiated agreement (BATNA)” influences the bargaining process between them, we argue different types of intervention affect governments’ and rebel groups’ BATNAs in different ways. This, in turn, affects the likelihood of a negotiated settlement. To test this argument, we address the fact that interventions are nonrandom, and that characteristics of civil conflicts that lead to different types of intervention also influence the likelihood of a negotiated settlement. We therefore use a two-stage statistical model. The first stage predicts the likelihood of different types of intervention, and drawing on those results, the second stage analyzes the likelihood of a negotiated settlement. The results provide insights into how different types of intervention affect civil conflict outcomes

Affect (linguistics · Argument (complex analysis · Economics · Geography · Human settlement · Intervention (counseling · Negotiation · Political science · Psychological intervention · Settlement (finance · Sociology · Culture, Economy, and Development Studies · International Development and Aid · Law · Political Conflict and Governance · Psychology · Social Psychology