The Expectations-driven US Current Account

Dados Bibliográficos

ID9712010
AutoresMathias Hoffmann (0000-0002-2776-1403, Deutsche Bundesbank), Michael U Krause (0000-0001-5265-3116, University of Cologne), Thomas Laubach (0000-0003-0471-4740, Federal Reserve Board of Governors)
Ano2019
Volume129
Fascículo618
Páginas897-924
Data de publicação2019-02-01
Peer ReviewedSim
Open AccessSim
TipoARTICLE
PeriódicoThe Economic Journal (JOURNAL)
Identificadores do periódicoISSN: 0013-0133 • E-ISSN: 1468-0297
EditoraOxford University Press (OUP) (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1111/ecoj.12539
OpenAlexW2066891700
IdiomaEN
Citações recebidas2
Referências citadas37

Since 1991, survey expectations of long-run output growth for the U.S. relative to the rest of the world exhibit a pattern strikingly similar to that of the U.S. current account, and thus also to global imbalances. We show that this finding can to a large extent be rationalized in a two-region stochastic growth model simulated using expected trend growth filtered from observed productivity. In line with the intertemporal approach to the current account, a major part of the buildup of the U.S. current account deficit appears to be driven by the optimal response of households and firms to improved growth prospects

Current (fluid · Current account · Econometrics · Economics · Exchange rate · Global Imbalances · Growth model · Macroeconomics · Rest (music · Economic Growth and Productivity · Global Financial Crisis and Policies · Monetary Policy and Economic Impact