Formal Employment and Organised Crime

Regression Discontinuity Evidence from Colombia

Dados Bibliográficos

ID9717235
AutoresGaurav Khanna (0000-0002-6846-3437, University of California San Diego, autor correspondente), Carlos Medina (0000-0003-0982-1852, Banco de la Republica de Colombia , Colombia), Anant Nyshadham (0000-0001-9165-5528, University of Michigan, BREAD, NBER, JPAL & Good Business Lab , USA), Jorge Tamayo (0000-0002-8410-264X, Harvard University), Nicolás Torres (0000-0001-8644-7441, Good Business Lab , Colombia)
Ano2023
Volume133
Fascículo654
Páginas2427-2448
Data de publicação2023-07-25
Open AccessSim
TipoARTICLE
PeriódicoThe Economic Journal (JOURNAL)
Identificadores do periódicoISSN: 0013-0133 • E-ISSN: 1468-0297
EditoraOxford University Press (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1093/ej/uead025
OpenAlexW3209601581
IdiomaEN
Citações recebidas2
Referências citadas41

Safety net programs, common in settings with high informality like Latin America, often use a means test to establish eligibility. We ask: in settings in which organised crime provides lucrative opportunities in the informal market, will discouraging formal employment via benefits eligibility criteria increase criminal enterprise activity? We link administrative socioeconomic microdata with the universe of arrests in Medellín over a decade, and exploit exogenous variation in formal-sector employment around a socioeconomic-score cutoff, below which individuals receive generous benefits if not formally employed. Regression discontinuity estimates confirm this policy reduced formal-sector employment and generated a corresponding increase in arrests associated with organised crime. We do not find increases for crimes unlikely to be associated with organised entities, such as crimes of impulse or opportunity. Effects on arrests are strongest in neighbourhoods where organised crime is most prevalent

Census · Computer security · Criminology · Demographic economics · Economic growth · Economics · Exploit · Informal sector · Latin Americans · Microdata (statistics · Organised crime · Political science · Population · Regression discontinuity design · Socioeconomic status · Sociology · Crime Patterns and Interventions · Crime, Illicit Activities, and Governance · Demography · Law · Taxation and Compliance Studies

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