The Evolution of the Phillips Curve

A Modern Time Series Viewpoint

Dados Bibliográficos

ID9723766
AutoresClive W J Granger (Ondokuz Mayıs University), YONGIL JEON (Sungkyunkwan University)
Ano2011
Volume78
Fascículo309
Páginas51-66
Data de publicação2011-01-01
Peer ReviewedSim
Open AccessSim
TipoARTICLE
PeriódicoEconomica (JOURNAL)
Identificadores do periódicoISSN: 0013-0427 • E-ISSN: 1468-0335
EditoraWiley (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1111/j.1468-0335.2009.00839.x
OpenAlexW1533453369
IdiomaEN
Citações recebidas1
Referências citadas11

Phillips' (1958) original curve involves a nonlinear relationship between inflation and unemployment. We consider how his original results change due to updated theoretic and empirical studies, increased computer power, enlarged datasets, increases in data frequency and developed time series econometric models. In the linear models, there was weak causation from unemployment to inflation. Rather than using any of the many nonlinear models that are now available, we adopt a time‐varying parameter linear model as their convenient proxy, which empirically supports Phillips' use of nonlinear model form and causation, but the strength of this result is much weaker in recent periods

Causation · Econometric model · Econometrics · Economics · Inflation (cosmology) · Macroeconomics · Nonlinear system · Phillips curve · Proxy (statistics) · Series (stratigraphy) · Statistics · Theoretical physics · Time series · Unemployment · Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis · Economic theories and models · Geology · Mathematics · Monetary Policy and Economic Impact