Did Covid‐19 induce a reallocation wave

Dados Bibliográficos

ID9726404
AutoresAgostino Consolo (0000-0001-7177-0377, European Central Bank), Filippos Petroulakis (0000-0003-1077-482X, Bank of Greece, autor correspondente)
Ano2024
Volume91
Fascículo364
Páginas1349-1390
Data de publicação2024-10-01
Peer ReviewedSim
Open AccessSim
TipoARTICLE
PeriódicoEconomica (JOURNAL)
Identificadores do periódicoISSN: 0013-0427 • E-ISSN: 1468-0335
EditoraWiley (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1111/ecca.12538
OpenAlexW4399979435
IdiomaEN
Referências citadas77

We critically examine the hypothesis that COVID‐19 has ushered in a large reallocation shock in the USA, beyond typical business cycle patterns. We take a broad perspective, and first consider data from the CPS and JOLTS; there is no noticeable uptick in occupation or sector switches, either at the aggregate level or in the cross‐section. The dispersion of sectoral growth rates over the three years before the pandemic was similar to the previous period. The recovery from the initial shock was characterized by very high quits and low layoffs, patterns indicative of a strong labour market, not excessively high reallocation relative to previous business cycles. High growth of small employers in the recovery, and larger ones once the labour market tightened, is also a common cyclical pattern. We then examine whether mismatch unemployment rose as a result of the pandemic; using an off‐the‐shelf multisector search and matching model, there is little evidence for an important role for mismatch in driving the unemployment rate during the pandemic. Finally, we employ a novel Bayesian Structural Vector Autoregression framework with sign restrictions to identify a reallocation shock; we find that it has played a relatively minor role in explaining labour market patterns in the pandemic, at least relative to earlier episodes

Bayesian probability · Bayesian vector autoregression · Business cycle · Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) · Economics · Macroeconomics · Matching (statistics) · Monetary economics · Monetary policy · Pandemic · Shock (circulatory) · Structural vector autoregression · Unemployment · COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts · Employment and Welfare Studies · Labor market dynamics and wage inequality