Updating scenarios

A multi-layer framework for structurally incorporating new information and uncertainties into scenarios

Dados Bibliográficos

ID9843369
AutoresPaulien van den Berg (0000-0002-3283-7556, Delft University of Technology), Daniel Scholten (0000-0002-7368-965X, Delft University of Technology, autor correspondente), Jonathan Schachter (0000-0002-6080-0830, Shell (Netherlands)), Kornelis Blok (0000-0003-4869-6927, Delft University of Technology)
Ano2021
Volume130
Páginas102751
Data de publicação2021-06-01
Peer ReviewedSim
Open AccessSim
TipoARTICLE
PeriódicoFutures (JOURNAL)
Identificadores do periódicoISSN: 0016-3287 • E-ISSN: 1873-6378
EditoraElsevier BV (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1016/j.futures.2021.102751
OpenAlexW3158318433
IdiomaEN
Citações recebidas5
Referências citadas18

A dynamic and fast-changing environment brings challenges for generating long-term scenarios. Although the need to update scenarios for decision-making is recognized, a structured way for executing this process remains unclear. To configure a solution, we propose two concepts that need to be introduced: 1) that scenarios consist of a multi-layered structure, and 2) that changes should be classified according to their impact and uncertainty. Based on this classification, changes are incorporated into the different distinguished layers. To apply these concepts during an update, the paper presents a framework to structurally incorporate new information and uncertainties into scenarios, keeping them up-to-date while guaranteeing that the scenarios remain realistic and useful. The framework is applied to a test case consisting of three scenarios describing the European power market to illustrate how the framework performs in a practical context. Electric Vehicles are chosen as an uncertainty to illustrate how to structurally incorporate changes. Results show that using the framework allows the complexity of the update to be simplified into a step-by-step process. Additionally, it increases transparency by creating a common language for understanding if and how the changing external environment should be incorporated within scenarios

Context (archaeology · Data mining · Distributed computing · Industrial engineering · Process (computing · Risk analysis (engineering · Scenario analysis · Transparency (behavior · Climate Change Policy and Economics · Computer Science · Engineering · Environmental Impact and Sustainability · Sustainability and Climate Change Governance