The role of hindsight in foresight
Refining strategic reasoning
Dados Bibliográficos
| ID | 9845815 |
|---|---|
| Autores | Brad Mackay (0000-0001-8737-3018, University of St Andrews, autor correspondente), R Bradley MacKay, Peter McKiernan (0000-0002-0205-9124, University of St Andrews) |
| Ano | 2004 |
| Volume | 36 |
| Fascículo | 2 |
| Páginas | 161-179 |
| Data de publicação | 2004-03-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Sim |
| Open Access | Sim |
| Tipo | ARTICLE |
| Periódico | Futures (JOURNAL) |
| Identificadores do periódico | ISSN: 0016-3287 • E-ISSN: 1873-6378 |
| Editora | Elsevier BV (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1016/s0016-3287(03)00147-2 |
| OpenAlex | W2114323194 |
| Idioma | EN |
| Citações recebidas | 23 |
| Referências citadas | 36 |
Cognition · Cognitive psychology · Cognitive science · Debiasing · Economics · Epistemology · Futures contract · Futures studies · Hindsight bias · Philosophy of science · Positive economics · Process (computing · Sociology · Undergrowth · Artificial Intelligence · Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference · Complex Systems and Decision Making · Computer Science · Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics · Ecology · Philosophy · Psychology
Directions in scenario planning literature – A review of the past decades
Of great apes and robots
Exploring innovative strategies in problem based learning to contribute to sustainable development
Evaluating Delphi survey accuracy in transportation
A systems perspective as a tool to understand disruption in travel and tourism
Generative artificial intelligence for managerial foresight
The case for history in planning future food systems transformations
Battle and Capture in North Africa
What if?’
The future orientation of foresters
Imagined past, present and futures in Murray–Darling Basin communities
Food system futures in Finland
Historical analysis as a basis for population foresight
Comparison of farmers’ mental models of the present and the future
The future according to Jesus
Perceived Environmental Uncertainty in scenario planning
Creativity and dysfunction in strategic processes
Functions of scenarios in transition processes
Scenarios and counterfactuals as modal narratives
Weak signals
Comparing system visions of farmers and experts
Strategy options and cognitive freezing
Looking backward to the future
Norm theory
I knew it would happen
Extensional versus intuitive reasoning
Reasons for confidence.
The simulation heuristic
Hindsight is not equal to foresight
Regret and Elation Following Action and Inaction
On the psychology of prediction.
Scenarios
Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics
Years of Trial and Hope
Thinking in Time
What's So Different about a Counterfactual
Temporal order and the perceived mutability of events
The functional basis of counterfactual thinking
Hindsight
| Obras citantes distintas | 23 |
|---|---|
| Citações por ano | 1,15 |
| Intervalo de citações | 2006 - 2026 (21) |
| Velocidade de citação | current |
| Altamente citado | Não |
| Tipos de citação | Neutras: 22 |