The life cycle model of chinese empire dynamics (221 BC–1912 AD)
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 10142245 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Peng Lü (0000-0003-1195-1816, Central South University), Dianhan Chen (0000-0002-7764-5638, Central South University, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2021 |
| Volume | 47 |
| Issue | 2 |
| Pages | 170-206 |
| Publication date | 2021-11-01 |
| Open Access | No |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Journal of Mathematical Sociology (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0022-250X • E-ISSN: 1545-5874 |
| Publisher | Taylor & Francis (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1080/0022250x.2021.1981311 |
| OpenAlex | W3209381920 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 58 |
The life cycle pattern is pervasive for both natural and social sciences, from human behaviors to social systems. Based on the life cycle model of collective actions, the man–land relationship governs the rise and fall cycles, namely dynastic cycles. We combine agent-based modeling, systemic dynamics, and numerical simulations, to build the life cycle model of empires. It aims to investigate the rise and fall process of 18 major dynasties (empires) in history of China, from BC 221 to AD 1912. The core aim is to find optimal solutions, which achieve the best matching between simulations and real history. According to our algorithm, the optimal solutions can be obtained, when we have the minimal span differences (gaps) between simulated and real empires. First, we traverse all related parameters, and select simulations with 18 empires. Second, we select the cases with the total ticks between 2122 and 2132 years (ticks). Third, we select cases whose differences (gaps) are within 20 years. Finally, we obtain three optimal solutions (combinations of parameters) whose validity (100 simulations) and robustness (1000 simulations) have been checked. It seems that our life cycle model has achieved the best fitness to real empires in the history of China. For distributive matching of durations (spans), both discrete and continuous forms can be matched. Besides, the simulate and real durations can be matched as well, under counterfactual inferences of 16–17, 18 & 19–20 pairs. Based on our model, the whole history process of China can be back-calculated. Therefore, it seems that the trend of human history (society) may be an automatic process, which cannot be altered by man’s will
Biology · China · Counterfactual thinking · Econometrics · Robustness (evolution · Computer Science · Culture, Economy, and Development Studies · Historical Economic and Social Studies · History · Mathematics · Psychology · Tree-ring climate responses
Concepts of the Life Cycle
Empire and Information
Climatic Change, Wars and Dynastic Cycles in China Over the Last Millennium
Years of European Climate Variability and Human Susceptibility
The population statistics of China, A.D. 2–1953
China’s Golden Age
The Confucian-Legalist State
The Cambridge History of China
The Logic of Collective Action
Famine, revolt, and the dynastic cycle
Finance, Empire and the British World
The Social and Economic History of the Roman Empire
An Account of Collective Actions in Public Health
Discovering Theory Dynamics by Computer Simulation
Differential Participation and the Nature of a Movement
America's Political Dynasties
The Collapse and Recovery of the Roman Empire
Experiments on the Provision of Public Goods. II. Provision Points, Stakes, Experience, and the Free-Rider Problem
A Theory of the Critical Mass. I. Interdependence, Group Heterogeneity, and the Production of Collective Action
Experiments on the Provision of Public Goods. I. Resources, Interest, Group Size, and the Free-Rider Problem
Individual Contributions for Collective Goods
Expansion and Contraction Patterns of Large Polities
Why Empires Reemerge
The roots of resilience
The Tragedy of the Commons
Population Dynamics and Economic Development
Groups Reward Individual Sacrifice
The Criminal Body and the Body Politic
Rethinking Empire from a Chinese Concept 'All-under-Heaven' (Tian-xia)
Decadence or Crisis in the Luso-Brazilian Empire
Artificial Societies
Prediction in Macrosociology
An experimental investigation of the free-rider problem
Climate, Desertification, and the Rise and Collapse of China's Historical Dynasties
| Highly cited | No |
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