Sudden-death aversion

Avoiding superior options because they feel riskier

Dados Bibliográficos

ID10155261
AutoresJesse Walker (0000-0003-2652-6177, Cornell University, autor correspondente), Jane L Risen (0000-0003-4879-1705, University of Chicago), Thomas Gilovich (0000-0002-4452-3626, Cornell University), Richard H Thaler (0000-0001-7550-2855, University of Chicago), Richard Thaler
Ano2018
Volume115
Fascículo3
Páginas363-378
Data de publicação2018-01-16
Peer ReviewedSim
Open AccessNão
TipoARTICLE
PeriódicoJournal of Personality and Social Psychology (JOURNAL)
Identificadores do periódicoISSN: 0022-3514 • E-ISSN: 1939-1315
EditoraAmerican Psychological Association (PUBLISHER • US)
DOI10.1037/pspa0000106
PMID29337583
OpenAlexW2783873975
IdiomaEN
Referências citadas29

We present evidence of sudden-death aversion (SDA)-the tendency to avoid "fast" strategies that provide a greater chance of success, but include the possibility of immediate defeat, in favor of "slow" strategies that reduce the possibility of losing quickly, but have lower odds of ultimate success. Using a combination of archival analyses and controlled experiments, we explore the psychology behind SDA. First, we provide evidence for SDA and its cost to decision makers by tabulating how often NFL teams send games into overtime by kicking an extra point rather than going for the 2-point conversion (Study 1) and how often NBA teams attempt potentially game-tying 2-point shots rather than potentially game-winning 3-pointers (Study 2). To confirm that SDA is not limited to sports, we demonstrate SDA in a military scenario (Study 3). We then explore two mechanisms that contribute to SDA: myopic loss aversion and concerns about "tempting fate." Studies 4 and 5 show that SDA is due, in part, to myopic loss aversion, such that decision makers narrow the decision frame, paying attention to the prospect of immediate loss with the "fast" strategy, but not the downstream consequences of the "slow" strategy. Study 6 finds that people are more pessimistic about a risky strategy that needn't be pursued (opting for sudden death) than the same strategy that must be pursued. We end by discussing how these twin mechanisms lead to differential expectations of blame from the self and others, and how SDA influences decisions in several different walks of life. (PsycINFO Database Record

Blame · Economics · Loss aversion · Microeconomics · Odds · Pessimism · Point (geometry · Tying · Behavioral Health and Interventions · Computer Science · Death Anxiety and Social Exclusion · Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics · Psychology · Social Psychology