Economic Losses from Forecasting Error in Agriculture
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 10177515 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Stephen J Decanio (0000-0002-8734-4695, corresponding author) |
| Year | 1980 |
| Volume | 88 |
| Issue | 2 |
| Pages | 234-258 |
| Publication date | 1980-04-01 |
| Open Access | No |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Journal of Political Economy (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0022-3808 • E-ISSN: 1537-534X |
| Publisher | University of Chicago Press (PUBLISHER • US) |
| DOI | 10.1086/260864 |
| OpenAlex | W1977577134 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 6 |
| References cited | 13 |
This paper develops a new method for estimating economic losses from forecasting error. The method is an alternative to the traditional distributed lag approach to estimating expectations. An application to Kansas agriculture over the period 1874-1933 reveals significant variation in farmers' price forecasting performance across counties and over time. These differences can be explained in terms of market improvements, technological and geographical factors, and county characteristics suggestive of human capital differences. The magnitudes, timing, and cross-sectional pattern of the losses from forecasting error confirm the importance of forecasting skill and allocative ability in American agriculture during the period examined
Agricultural economics · Agriculture · Allocative efficiency · Econometrics · Economic forecasting · Economic growth · Economics · Forecast error · Geography · Human capital · Lag · Microeconomics · Agricultural Economics and Policy · Agricultural risk and resilience · Computer Science · Economics of Agriculture and Food Markets
The Measurement of Productive Efficiency
Regional Specialization and the Supply of Wheat in the United States, 1867-1914
Education and the Managerial Efficiency of Farmers
Rational Expectations in American Agriculture, 1867-1914
Populism and Politics
Economically Rational Expectations
Futures Trading and Market Information
The Economic Bases for Agrarian Protest Movements in the United States, 1870–1900
A Reappraisal of the Causes of Farm Protest in the United States, 1870–1900
Agricultural Terms of Trade in Four Midwestern States, 1870–1900
From Old to New to Old in Economic History
Current Sources of Information in Produce Markets
Wheat and the A.A.A
| Citations per year | 0.13 |
|---|---|
| Citation span | 1981 - 2024 (44) |
| Highly cited | No |