Credibility and Changes in Policy Regime
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 10180946 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Francisco J Ruge-Murciá (0000-0003-2291-4279, corresponding author) |
| Year | 1995 |
| Volume | 103 |
| Issue | 1 |
| Pages | 176-208 |
| Publication date | 1995-02-01 |
| Open Access | No |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Journal of Political Economy (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0022-3808 • E-ISSN: 1537-534X |
| Publisher | University of Chicago Press (PUBLISHER • US) |
| DOI | 10.1086/261980 |
| OpenAlex | W1992213002 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 8 |
| References cited | 9 |
This paper develops a rational expectations model of inflation in which the dynamics are driven by government expenditure and the effect of past inflation rates on the value of real taxes. Government spending follows an autoregressive process subject to discrete regime changes. The regimes are defined by whether the expenditure level is consistent with the rate of inflation targeted by the government. The agents do not observe the regime but construct probability inferences using data on inflation, interest rates, and spending. Credibility is quantified by the agents' inferred probability that the variables are in effect generated by the reformed regime. Copyright 1995 by University of Chicago Press
Autoregressive model · Credibility · Econometrics · Economics · Government (linguistics · Government spending · Inflation (cosmology · Macroeconomics · Monetary economics · Monetary policy · Real interest rate · Volatility (finance · Welfare · Fiscal Policies and Political Economy · Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth · Monetary Policy and Economic Impact
Interest-Rate Volatility in Emerging Markets
Are the Effects of Fiscal Changes Different in Times of Crisis and Non-Crisis? The French Case
Are the Effects of Fiscal Changes Different in Times of Crisis and Non-Crisis? The French Case
Sovereigns at risk
High real interest rates in the aftermath of disinflation
Government expenditure and the dynamics of high inflation
Volatility dependence and contagion in emerging equity markets
The Effect of Policy-Maker Reputation and Credibility on Public Expectations
Rules, discretion and reputation in a model of monetary policy
A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle
A Theory of Ambiguity, Credibility, and Inflation under Discretion and Asymmetric Information
Estimation and inference in econometrics
Israel's Stabilization
An Economic Theory of Monetary Reform
Inflation, the Payments Period, and the Demand for Money
Inflation and Currency Reform
| Citations per year | 0.27 |
|---|---|
| Citation span | 1996 - 2020 (25) |
| Highly cited | No |